525 Gough St #405

San Francisco, CA 94102

$1,750,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,732 sqft · Built 2005 · Condo · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,669/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,177
• Tax + insurance: −$2,578
• HOA: −$860
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,401
• Net cashflow: $-7,346/mo
• Annual: $-88,157/yr
• Cap rate: 1.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.99%
• DSCR: 0.20
• 1% rule: 0.38%
• Cash to close: $490,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $1.75M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7k ($-88k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $452k (74.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $667k (61.9% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.72M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $452k (74.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $96k of equity ($12k loan paydown + $84k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.1%/yr); 63 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$154k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 1.3% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• At $6,669/mo this rent would consume 132% of the median local household income ($60k/yr) (locally 3769% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.