27 Minisink Trl

Eldred, NY 12737

$399,900F

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 670 sqft · Built 1939 · SingleFamily · Pending · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,595/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax + insurance: −$419
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $-1,256/mo
• Annual: $-15,075/yr
• Cap rate: 2.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.46%
• DSCR: 0.40
• 1% rule: 0.40%
• Cash to close: $111,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (55.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (60.1% below list).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($394k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $160k (60.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $43k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Eldred Central School District (rural): math 33% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #495 of 590 in NY (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $31k; list at $400k implies a 1182% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$69k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.