27 Minisink Trl · Eldred, NY 12737

$399,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 670 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1939 0.34 ac lot $597/sqft · waterfront premium

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Cash flow +3.2/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Turnkey Lakefront Living! Move right into this fabulous, fully renovated cottage in the Mohican Lake community. No projects required. This home has been thoughtfully updated with a new kitchen, skylights, new bath, energy-efficient insulation and so much more. Rarely does a home combine this much charm with such modern convenience. Welcome to 27 Minisink Trail, a beautifully renovated cottage where every detail from the sun-drenched skylights to the cozy fireplace invites you to relax. This is a home built for making memories: teaching the kids to fish for sunfish off the private dock (outside shower to clean up!), hosting friends for a weekend on the water, or simply watching the sunset from your expansive deck. Experience the ultimate lakefront lifestyle for those seeking a year-round retreat or a premier four-season getaway. Spend your mornings on the oversized lake-view deck with coffee and your afternoons on your private dock, enjoying everything this 200-acre glacial lake has to offer from powerboating and jet skiing to peaceful fishing for bass and pickerel and swimming. The versatile layout comfortably sleeps ten, featuring two cozy bedrooms plus a spacious sleeping loft. Whether you're warming up by the fireplace on a rainy afternoon or hosting a summer BBQ, this home is designed for effortless enjoyment. Located just two hours from the GWB and close to the Barryville Farmers Market, Bethel Woods, conveniences and the Port Jervis commuter train.

Key facts

• Lakefront living
• New bath
• New kitchen

Tags

• LAKEFRONT LIVING
• FULLY RENOVATED COTTAGE
• NEW KITCHEN
• SKYLIGHTS
• NEW BATH
• ENERGY EFFICIENT INSULATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (55.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (60.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (60.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Eldred Central School District (rural): math 33% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #495 of 590 in NY (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $43k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$69k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($394k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $31k; list at $400k implies a 1182% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $159,510 (60.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.40% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.46%
• DSCR: 0.40
• GRM: 20.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $188,855
• List price: $399,900
• Delta: 111.75%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31 Minisink Trl	0.01mi	2/1.0	680 (+2%)	8mo	$185,000	$272	90
11 Reindeer Ter	0.50mi	2/1.0	624 (-7%)	6mo	$70,000	$112	61
16 Beach Rd	0.64mi	1/1.0 (-1)	700 (+4%)	8mo	$241,000	$344	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $137,657
• Equity at exit: $360,262

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.18×
• Total profit: $468,044
• Equity at exit: $776,918

Cash invested: $111,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12737

• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 20.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,595 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax from tax record: −$253 /mo · $3,032/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $-1,256

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,185

Max offer price $177,979

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,030	-5% $-1,143	+0% $-1,256	+5% $-1,369	+10% $-1,483
Rent	-10% $-1,382	-5% $-1,319	+0% $-1,256	+5% $-1,193	+10% $-1,130
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,055	-0.5pp $-1,155	base $-1,256	+0.5pp $-1,360	+1.0pp $-1,465

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,975
• Closing costs: $11,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 1479-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1479 chars)

   Turnkey Lakefront Living! Move right into this fabulous, fully renovated cottage in the Mohican Lake community. No projects required. This home has been thoughtfully updated with a new kitchen, skylights, new bath, energy-efficient insulation and so much more. Rarely does a home combine this much charm with such modern convenience. Welcome to 27 Minisink Trail, a beautifully renovated cottage where every detail from the sun-drenched skylights to the cozy fireplace invites you to relax. This is a home built for making memories: teaching the kids to fish for sunfish off the private dock (outside shower to clean up!), hosting friends for a weekend on the water, or simply watching the sunset from your expansive deck. Experience the ultimate lakefront lifestyle for those seeking a year-round retreat or a premier four-season getaway. Spend your mornings on the oversized lake-view deck with coffee and your afternoons on your private dock, enjoying everything this 200-acre glacial lake has to offer from powerboating and jet skiing to peaceful fishing for bass and pickerel and swimming. The versatile layout comfortably sleeps ten, featuring two cozy bedrooms plus a spacious sleeping loft. Whether you're warming up by the fireplace on a rainy afternoon or hosting a summer BBQ, this home is designed for effortless enjoyment. Located just two hours from the GWB and close to the Barryville Farmers Market, Bethel Woods, conveniences and the Port Jervis commuter train.

2. 2026-04-17
   listed $399,900 Active 1479-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1479 chars)

   Turnkey Lakefront Living! Move right into this fabulous, fully renovated cottage in the Mohican Lake community. No projects required. This home has been thoughtfully updated with a new kitchen, skylights, new bath, energy-efficient insulation and so much more. Rarely does a home combine this much charm with such modern convenience. Welcome to 27 Minisink Trail, a beautifully renovated cottage where every detail from the sun-drenched skylights to the cozy fireplace invites you to relax. This is a home built for making memories: teaching the kids to fish for sunfish off the private dock (outside shower to clean up!), hosting friends for a weekend on the water, or simply watching the sunset from your expansive deck. Experience the ultimate lakefront lifestyle for those seeking a year-round retreat or a premier four-season getaway. Spend your mornings on the oversized lake-view deck with coffee and your afternoons on your private dock, enjoying everything this 200-acre glacial lake has to offer from powerboating and jet skiing to peaceful fishing for bass and pickerel and swimming. The versatile layout comfortably sleeps ten, featuring two cozy bedrooms plus a spacious sleeping loft. Whether you're warming up by the fireplace on a rainy afternoon or hosting a summer BBQ, this home is designed for effortless enjoyment. Located just two hours from the GWB and close to the Barryville Farmers Market, Bethel Woods, conveniences and the Port Jervis commuter train.

3. 1988-10-12
   soldstatus $31,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,032 · $253/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,895 · $408/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,863/yr (+$155/mo · 61.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,141
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,401
• − Property taxes: −$3,032
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,531
• − Management: −$1,531
• − Depreciation: −$11,633
• Taxable loss: −$22,987
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,517
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,558/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eldred Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3610410
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $52,775
• Composite: 35.94/100
• National rank: #4800
• State rank: #495 of 590 in NY

Livability — Eldred

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,817

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 132.02%
• Current HPI: 443.8248
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1181.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Listed $399,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1988-10-12 Sold (Public Records) $31,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,032 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.