6414 Shadow Ln

Central Park, WA 98520

$115,000B

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,324 sqft · Built 1966 · SingleFamily · Pending · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,956/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$202
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $740/mo
• Annual: $8,885/yr
• Cap rate: 14.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.59%
• DSCR: 2.23
• 1% rule: 1.70%
• Cash to close: $32,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $740 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#174 in WA, #4,470 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, commute A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Aberdeen School District (town): math 35% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #222 of 291 in WA (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Central Park Elementary (128 students, 61% FRL); Miller Junior High (718 students, 68% FRL); J M Weatherwax High School (916 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools at 64% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 266 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 297 units permitted in Grays Harbor County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Grays Harbor County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.