6414 Shadow Ln · Central Park, WA 98520

$115,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,324 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1966 1.06 ac lot ↓ 32% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This HUD home is a diamond in the rough! 2,324 square feet sitting on a large one acre lot that is just waiting to be brought back to life. This home has suffered extensive fire damage so will need your vision for the future. Large detached two car garage-shop is waiting for you. Located close to amenities and Hwy 12 you are not going to want to miss seeing this one!

Key facts

• 1.06 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1966

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $740 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#174 in WA, #4,470 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, commute A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Aberdeen School District (town): math 35% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #222 of 291 in WA (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 266 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 297 units permitted in Grays Harbor County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grays Harbor County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $115,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.59%
• DSCR: 2.23
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $476,420
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
402 Greenbriar Ct	0.28mi	3/2.5	2,328 (+0%)	19mo	$565,000	$243	71
306 Evergreen Ln	0.53mi	3/2.5	2,271 (-2%)	6mo	$505,000	$222	66
6211 Ridgeview Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	2,223 (-4%)	21mo	$439,500	$198	64
524 Carl Way	0.24mi	3/2.5	2,029 (-13%)	8mo	$405,000	$200	61
515 Carl Way	0.32mi	3/3.0	2,046 (-12%)	3mo	$520,000	$254	60
6109 Ridgeview Dr	0.26mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,977 (-15%)	1mo	$405,000	$205	57
6815 River Rd	0.67mi	3/1.0	2,120 (-9%)	16mo	$340,000	$160	35
16 Ally Ln	0.57mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,088 (-10%)	22mo	$410,000	$196	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $31,253
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.09×
• Total profit: $99,445
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98520

• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 266
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,956 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,848/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $740

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,019

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $806	-5% $773	+0% $740	+5% $708	+10% $675
Rent	-10% $586	-5% $663	+0% $740	+5% $818	+10% $895
Rate	-1.0pp $798	-0.5pp $770	base $740	+0.5pp $711	+1.0pp $680

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
409 Silkey Rd Aberdeen, WA	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,600	$1.30	44d	1	0.38mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-05
   listed $115,000 Active
3. 2025-03-27
   soldstatus $358,401
4. 2002-01-30
   soldstatus $170,000
5. 2002-01-30
   soldstatus $170,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,848 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,848 · $154/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥81°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,475
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,848
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,878
• − Management: −$1,878
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $7,509
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,802
• After-tax cash flow: $7,083/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aberdeen School District
• NCES district ID: 5300030
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $41,896
• Composite: 36.13/100
• National rank: #9477
• State rank: #222 of 291 in WA

Livability — Central Park

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #174
• US rank: #4470

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Central Park, WA
• County: Grays Harbor County · 44,693 people
• Metro: Aberdeen, WA
• Population (ZIP): 24,888
• Household income: $58,153
• Rent vs Own: 35.4% rent · 64.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 635.0

Population outlook (Grays Harbor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,443 people
• By 2030: 63,255 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 56,466 · -15.0%
• By 2050: 50,516 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 39,296 · -40.9%
• By 2100: 31,142 · -53.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Native American 3% Asian 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Asian/Pacific 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grays Harbor

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.0) · D 45.6% · R 51.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: -6.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.0 2020: R+6.6 2016: R+7.1 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -138.75%
• Current HPI: 207.7393
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.35%
• Metro: Aberdeen, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-32.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-05 Listed $115,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-27 Sold (Public Records) $358,401 Public Records
• 2002-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 2002-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,848 · -58.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.