6405 Robin Ln

Goose Creek Lake, MO 63036

$67,500C+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · Built 1976 · Other · Active · 231 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $760/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$354
• Tax + insurance: −$55
• HOA: −$25
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$160
• Net cashflow: $166/mo
• Annual: $1,994/yr
• Cap rate: 9.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.55%
• DSCR: 1.47
• 1% rule: 1.13%
• Cash to close: $18,900

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $68k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $166 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($760 rent vs $68k).
• It's been on market 231 days — a 12% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $59k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($467 loan paydown + $833 appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• North St. Francois County R-I (town): math 29% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #214 of 324 in MO (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North County Parkside Elem. (math 29% / reading 40%, grade F, #676 of 1,115 statewide, top 66%, 367 students, 62% FRL); North Co. Sr. High (math 25% / reading 56%, grade F, #240 of 521 statewide, top 46%, 873 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 134 units permitted in St. Francois County in 2024 (32 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (1.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 3.0% in Goose Creek Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 231 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.