6405 Robin Ln · Goose Creek Lake, MO 63036

$67,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · Other public records · 231 Days on market

Built 1976 0.42 ac lot $25/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 19% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Charming 1-Bedroom Cabin on Two Lots in Goose Creek Lake Development – Perfect Getaway! Discover the perfect retreat with this well-maintained 1-bedroom, 1-bathroom cabin offering approximately 600 sq. ft. of comfortable living space. Nestled in a quiet cul-de-sac within the highly sought-after Goose Creek Lake development, this property provides the ideal blend of peace, privacy, and recreation. Situated on two spacious lots, this property offers plenty of room to relax and enjoy the natural surroundings. A covered carport provides convenient protection for vehicles, while the home’s meticulous upkeep ensures a move-in-ready experience for the new owner. Inside, you’ll fi

Key facts

• Large back deck
• Two lots
• Quiet cul-de-sac

Tags

• TWO LOTS
• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• COVERED CARPORT
• LARGE BACK DECK
• COZY FIREPIT
• ACCESS TO SANDY BEACH AREAS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area recorded at 600 (assessor)
• Financial info: Lease not considered; No second mortgage reported
• HOA & community: GOOSE CREEK association; Annual association fee; Association amenities include beach access and pool; Association fee covers maintenance of parking/roads and common area maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space); Off-street parking
• Utilities: No water source listed; Septic tank; Electricity connected (220 volts)
• Home design: Residential cabin; Attached property; One story
• Construction: Aluminum roof; Other construction materials
• Exterior features: Deck; Pool on property; RV/boat storage; Located on a cul-de-sac; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom (main level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Ceiling fan(s) for cooling; Dual cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Dual cooling zones; 5 total rooms (living room, dining room, kitchen, bedroom, bathroom)
• Laundry & utility: Electric service 220 volts

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $68k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $166 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($760 rent vs $68k).
• Recommended offer: $59k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 3.0% in Goose Creek Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• North St. Francois County R-I (town): math 29% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #214 of 324 in MO (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North County Parkside Elem. (math 29% / reading 40%, grade F, #676 of 1,115 statewide, top 66%, 367 students, 62% FRL); North Co. Sr. High (math 25% / reading 56%, grade F, #240 of 521 statewide, top 46%, 873 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 134 units permitted in St. Francois County in 2024 (32 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($467 loan paydown + $833 appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (1.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 231 days — a 12% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $59,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 231 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.55%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.23% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $12,614
• Equity at exit: $23,871

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.02×
• Total profit: $38,220
• Equity at exit: $32,373

Cash invested: $18,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63036

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 49
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $760 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$354
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $328/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$160
• Net cashflow: $166

Break-even live

Break-even rent $550

Max offer price $67,500

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,875
• Closing costs: $2,025
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $67,500 Active 231 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $67,500 Active 230 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $67,500 Active 229 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $67,500 Active 228 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $67,500 Active 226 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $67,500 Active 225 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $67,500 Active 222 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $67,500 Active 221 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $67,500 Active 220 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $67,500 Active 219 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $67,500 Active 216 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $67,500 Active 215 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    price $67,500 Active 214 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $72,500 Active 214 DOM
15. 2026-03-04
    status Active
16. 2025-10-25
    listed $72,500 Active
17. 2025-04-07
    listed $74,999 Active
18. 2025-04-07
    historical
19. 2024-07-29
    historical
20. 2024-06-12
    price $84,900
21. 2024-05-03
    listed $89,900 Active
22. 2003-10-04
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $328 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $655 · $55/mo
• Expected delta: +$326/yr (+$27/mo · 99.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,123
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,781
• − Property taxes: −$328
• − Insurance: −$338
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$730
• − Management: −$730
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$1,964
• Taxable income: $953
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$229
• After-tax cash flow: $1,765/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North St. Francois County R-I
• NCES district ID: 2905430
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $40,156
• Composite: 29.77/100
• National rank: #6431
• State rank: #214 of 324 in MO

Livability — Goose Creek Lake

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Goose Creek Lake, MO
• Population (ZIP): 1,121

Population outlook (St. Francois County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,683 people
• By 2030: 69,574 · +1.3%
• By 2040: 70,665 · +2.9%
• By 2050: 70,708 · +2.9%
• By 2075: 67,917 · -1.1%
• By 2100: 56,563 · -17.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 9% Lithuanian 6% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Francois

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.8% · R 75.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -46.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.6pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+48.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+19.5 2008: R+4.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.23%
• Current HPI: 60.8458
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-19.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-25 Listed $72,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-07 Listed $74,999 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-07 Coming Soon — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-29 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-12 Price Changed $84,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-03 Listed $89,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-10-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $328 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.