3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,404 sqft ·
Built 2005
· Manufactured
· Pending
· 33 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,980/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,468
Tax + insurance
−$255
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$416
Net cashflow
$-159/mo
Annual
$-1,904/yr
Cap rate
5.61%
Cash-on-cash
-2.43%
DSCR
0.89
1% rule
0.71%
Cash to close
$78,400
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $280k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-159 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (10.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (29.3% below list).
It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $198k (29.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
Location reads 64/100 on livability (#215 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
North Bend SD 13 (town): math 30% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #21 of 58 in OR (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: North Bay Elementary School (math 34% / reading 42%, grade F, #197 of 412 statewide, top 48%, 443 students, 69% FRL); North Bend Middle School (math 24% / reading 45%, grade F, #61 of 128 statewide, top 54%, 494 students, 68% FRL); North Bend Senior High School (math 75% / reading 75%, grade A-, #2 of 143 statewide, top 6%, 731 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 40% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 122 units permitted in Coos County in 2024 (16 in 5+ unit buildings).
Coos County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
Current owner paid $30k; list at $280k implies a 833% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.7% in Lakeside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-42GQ8JFBBMP933
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29