409 Shepard St

Mount Olive, MS 39119

$33,300B+

3 bd · 0.5 ba · 962 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Pending · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $886/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$175
• Tax + insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$186
• Net cashflow: $471/mo
• Annual: $5,650/yr
• Cap rate: 23.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 60.59%
• DSCR: 3.70
• 1% rule: 2.66%
• Cash to close: $9,324

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/0.5-bath single-family listed at $33k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $471 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($886 rent vs $33k).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($33k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $33k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($230 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (7.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#93 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, amenities F.
• Covington County School District (rural): math 26% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #78 of 130 in MS (top 60%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP.
• Covington County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (7.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 91% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.