409 Shepard St · Mount Olive, MS 39119

$33,300

3 bd · 0.5 ba · 962 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1970 0.26 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Starting bid: $32,500. This property will be going on live Auction, end date will be Wednesday, May 20, 2026 @ 3pm CST. Please navigate to Homes4Purchase. com, search, 409 Shepard Street, Mt Olive MS 39119. Brick ranch-style home in a great location in relation to the town of Mt. Olive, last house on a corner lot. This 3-bedroom, 1 bath home sits on a . 26 acre lot with a few large trees and has wonderful potential. It is sold AS-IS, WHERE-IS through the USDA's online auction program. Availability, next steps, or re-auction status (if any) are determined solely by the auction platform and seller. All bids and auction activity are handled exclusively through www. Homes4Purchase.com . Buyers

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1970

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; 1 carport space; Concrete parking surface
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single-story ranch-style residential home; Brick veneer exterior; Built on a slab foundation
• Construction: Brick veneer construction; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Composition roof

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Gas water heater; 6 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/0.5-bath single-family listed at $33k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $471 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($886 rent vs $33k).
• Recommended offer: $33k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#93 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, amenities F.
• Covington County School District (rural): math 26% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #78 of 130 in MS (top 60%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($230 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (7.6% local appreciation)).
• Covington County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($33k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 91% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $32,800 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 60.59%
• DSCR: 3.70
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.57% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 70.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.59×
• Total profit: $42,800
• Equity at exit: $24,324

10-year hold

• IRR: 65.9%
• Equity multiple: 11.93×
• Total profit: $101,919
• Equity at exit: $47,383

Cash invested: $9,324 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39119

• Home prices YoY: 5.3%
• Active inventory: 27
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $886 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$175
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $485/yr
• Insurance: −$14
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$186
• Net cashflow: $471

Break-even live

Break-even rent $290

Max offer price $33,300

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,325
• Closing costs: $999
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-20
   price $33,300
2. 2026-05-14
   price $32,500
3. 2026-05-12
   listed $33,300 Active
4. 2026-05-01
   listed $33,300 Active
5. 2026-05-01
   listed $33,300 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $485 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $485 · $40/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 91% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,629
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,865
• − Property taxes: −$485
• − Insurance: −$166
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$850
• − Management: −$850
• − Depreciation: −$969
• Taxable income: $5,443
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,306
• After-tax cash flow: $4,343/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Covington County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801290
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $33,020
• Composite: 22.09/100
• National rank: #8183
• State rank: #78 of 130 in MS

Livability — Mount Olive

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #93
• US rank: #11501

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mount Olive, MS
• Population (ZIP): 6,199

Population outlook (Covington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,294 people
• By 2030: 18,875 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 17,777 · -7.9%
• By 2050: 16,381 · -15.1%
• By 2075: 12,704 · -34.2%
• By 2100: 9,090 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (50%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 50% White 46% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Covington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.3) · D 33.0% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.6pp toward R · 2008: -17.7pp · 2024: -33.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.3 2020: R+26.0 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.57%
• Current HPI: 150.7147
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $33,300 LBOR
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $32,500 LBOR
• 2026-05-12 Listed $33,300 LBOR
• 2026-05-01 Listed $33,300 LBOR
• 2026-05-01 Listed $33,300 LBOR

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $485 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.