409 N Avenue D

Waelder, TX 78959

$105,000B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,654 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Active · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,367/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax + insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $354/mo
• Annual: $4,252/yr
• Cap rate: 10.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.46%
• DSCR: 1.64
• 1% rule: 1.30%
• Cash to close: $29,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $354 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#705 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Waelder ISD (rural): math 20% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #1,095 of 1,141 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Gonzales County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gonzales County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $105k implies a 94% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-1.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.