445 W Hartel St

Sour Lake, TX 77659

$39,900B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,512 sqft · Built 1938 · SingleFamily · Active · 51 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,552/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax + insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $950/mo
• Annual: $11,401/yr
• Cap rate: 34.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 102.05%
• DSCR: 5.54
• 1% rule: 3.89%
• Cash to close: $11,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $950 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $40k).
• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#352 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hardin-Jefferson ISD (rural): math 54% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #135 of 826 in TX (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sour Lake El (math 43% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,283 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 767 students, 42% FRL); Henderson Middle (math 59% / reading 47%, grade C+, #281 of 1,662 statewide, top 18%, 617 students, 41% FRL); Hardin-Jefferson H S (math 68% / reading 67%, grade B, #158 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 749 students, 38% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1938 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 358 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 34.9% vs local median 4.9% in Sour Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1938 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.