445 W Hartel St · Sour Lake, TX 77659

$39,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,512 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1938 0.27 ac lot $16/sqft · 87% below area ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity to bring your vision to life with this fixer-upper priced to sell! This property sits on a double lot and has already had some major groundwork completed, including foundation repairs, trees removed from front yard, and a new fence was installed on 4/1/26, giving you a solid head start on your renovation project. This property is ideal for investors or buyers looking to customize a home to their liking. With the right improvements, this property has excellent upside potential. Bring your offers -- Property is sold As-Is. * * * * * * * * * Gran opportunidad para dar vida a tu vision con esta propiedad para remodelar, con precio para venderse rápido! Esta pr

Key facts

• Trees removed
• Double lot
• Foundation repairs

Tags

• DOUBLE LOT
• FOUNDATION REPAIRS
• TREES REMOVED
• NEW FENCE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1938
• Construction: Wood siding; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Lot of approximately 11,700 square feet; Lot includes Other features

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two second-floor bedrooms (each about 10x12); Primary bedroom on the first floor (about 10x12)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: 3 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $950 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 34.9% vs local median 4.9% in Sour Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#352 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hardin-Jefferson ISD (rural): math 54% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #135 of 826 in TX (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sour Lake El (math 43% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,283 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 767 students, 42% FRL); Henderson Middle (math 59% / reading 47%, grade C+, #281 of 1,662 statewide, top 18%, 617 students, 41% FRL); Hardin-Jefferson H S (math 68% / reading 67%, grade B, #158 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 749 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 358 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1938 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $38,703 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1938 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 34.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 102.05%
• DSCR: 5.54
• GRM: 2.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $313,489
• List price: $39,900
• Delta: -87.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 5.84×
• Total profit: $54,069
• Equity at exit: $5,949

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.20×
• Total profit: $125,095
• Equity at exit: $3,450

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77659

• Active inventory: 93
• Price-to-rent: 2.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,552 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $598/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $950

Break-even live

Break-even rent $349

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 34%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $978	-5% $964	+0% $950	+5% $936	+10% $923
Rent	-10% $827	-5% $889	+0% $950	+5% $1,011	+10% $1,073
Rate	-1.0pp $970	-0.5pp $960	base $950	+0.5pp $940	+1.0pp $929

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,900 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,900 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,900 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,900 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $39,900 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $39,900 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $39,900 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $44,900 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $44,900 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $44,900 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $44,900 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $44,900 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $44,900 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $44,900 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-05
    price $44,900 993-char remark
16. 2026-04-28
    listed $49,900 Active 993-char remark
17. 2023-03-31
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,620
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$598
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,490
• − Management: −$1,490
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $11,447
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,747
• After-tax cash flow: $8,654/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hardin-Jefferson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822410
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $61,336
• Composite: 45.14/100
• National rank: #2682
• State rank: #135 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sour Lake

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #352
• US rank: #7687

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sour Lake, TX
• Population (ZIP): 5,847

Population outlook (Hardin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,780 people
• By 2030: 58,296 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 58,421 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 57,391 · -0.7%
• By 2075: 53,132 · -8.0%
• By 2100: 44,905 · -22.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Hardin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+75.8) · D 11.9% · R 87.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -61.2pp · 2024: -75.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+75.8 2020: R+73.8 2016: R+73.9 2012: R+67.6 2008: R+61.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.72%
• Current HPI: 184.5266
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $39,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $44,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $49,900 HARMLS
• 2023-03-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,258 · -44.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.