271 Devon Dr

Lake Land'Or, VA 22546

$319,950F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Pending · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,211/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax + insurance: −$533
• HOA: −$96
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $-560/mo
• Annual: $-6,720/yr
• Cap rate: 4.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.50%
• DSCR: 0.67
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $89,586

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $320k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-560 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (25.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (30.9% below list).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $221k (30.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Caroline County Public School District (rural): math 39% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #95 of 131 in VA (top 72%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 273 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 318 units permitted in Caroline County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Caroline County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $320k implies a 452% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 21% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.