271 Devon Dr · Lake Land'Or, VA 22546

$319,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Land · 34 Days on market

Built 2026 0.38 ac lot $333/sqft · 8% above area Est $296k · 8% over $96/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• ARV discount +3.9/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don’t miss this opportunity to own a rare pond-front lot in the highly desirable, gated community of Lake Land’Or! This property gives you the chance to create your dream home with peaceful water views right outside your back door, while surrounding yourself with all the amenities of a true resort-style neighborhood. Lake Land’Or offers two private lakes, multiple fishing ponds, sandy beaches, a full-service marina, two pools, a clubhouse with fitness center, playgrounds, dog parks, walking trails, and courts for tennis, pickleball, and basketball. Whether you prefer mornings spent fishing or kayaking, afternoons by the pool, or evenings gathering with friends and neighbors at community events, life here feels like a year-round getaway. The combination of security, natural beauty, and unmatched amenities makes Lake Land’Or one of Virginia’s most sought-after communities. Waterfront lots like this are limited — don’t wait to secure your piece of paradise today!

Key facts

• 0.38 acre lot
• Parking
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee; Annual association fee: $1,146 (includes common areas, pools, water access); Association provides management; Community amenities: clubhouse, gated entry, lake, pond, pool, tennis courts

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway (unpaved)
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; New construction / under construction; Shingle roof; Frame construction with vinyl siding; Has a view; Zoned R1
• Construction: Under construction / new construction; Built with frame and vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Rear porch; Porch; Stoop; Unpaved driveway; Level lot; Lakefront / water access (lake, pond; walk to water); Pool (community)

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Granite counters
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on main level; Main level primary
• Flooring: Partially carpeted; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Tub and shower in one full bath; Double vanity
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Cathedral ceilings; High ceilings; Double vanity; Eat-in kitchen; Granite counters; Recessed lighting; Walk-in closets; Bedroom on main level; Main level primary
• Laundry & utility: Dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-560 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (25.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (30.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (30.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Caroline County Public School District (rural): math 39% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #95 of 131 in VA (top 72%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 273 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 318 units permitted in Caroline County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caroline County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $320k implies a 452% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 21% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,146 (30.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.50%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $296,235
• List price: $319,950
• Delta: 8.01%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-87,423
• Equity at exit: $47,706

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.36×
• Total profit: $-121,681
• Equity at exit: $27,663

Cash invested: $89,586 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22546

• Home prices YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 273
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,211 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$400 /mo · $4,799/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$96
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $-560

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,920

Max offer price $238,911

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,988
• Closing costs: $9,598
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $96 · $1,152/yr
• Likely covers: waterlandscapingpoolgymsecurity

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $319,950 Pending 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $319,950 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $319,950 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-04-28
   listed $319,950 Active 949-char remark
5. 2025-12-10
   soldstatus $58,000 Closed 1016-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1016 chars)

   Don’t miss this opportunity to own a rare pond-front lot in the highly desirable, gated community of Lake Land’Or! This property gives you the chance to create your dream home with peaceful water views right outside your back door, while surrounding yourself with all the amenities of a true resort-style neighborhood. Lake Land’Or offers two private lakes, multiple fishing ponds, sandy beaches, a full-service marina, two pools, a clubhouse with fitness center, playgrounds, dog parks, walking trails, and courts for tennis, pickleball, and basketball. Whether you prefer mornings spent fishing or kayaking, afternoons by the pool, or evenings gathering with friends and neighbors at community events, life here feels like a year-round getaway. The combination of security, natural beauty, and unmatched amenities makes Lake Land’Or one of Virginia’s most sought-after communities. Waterfront lots like this are limited — don’t wait to secure your piece of paradise today!

6. 2025-11-20
   soldstatus $58,000
7. 2025-11-06
   status Pending 1016-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1016 chars)

   Don’t miss this opportunity to own a rare pond-front lot in the highly desirable, gated community of Lake Land’Or! This property gives you the chance to create your dream home with peaceful water views right outside your back door, while surrounding yourself with all the amenities of a true resort-style neighborhood. Lake Land’Or offers two private lakes, multiple fishing ponds, sandy beaches, a full-service marina, two pools, a clubhouse with fitness center, playgrounds, dog parks, walking trails, and courts for tennis, pickleball, and basketball. Whether you prefer mornings spent fishing or kayaking, afternoons by the pool, or evenings gathering with friends and neighbors at community events, life here feels like a year-round getaway. The combination of security, natural beauty, and unmatched amenities makes Lake Land’Or one of Virginia’s most sought-after communities. Waterfront lots like this are limited — don’t wait to secure your piece of paradise today!

8. 2025-10-11
   listed $75,000 Active 1016-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1016 chars)

   Don’t miss this opportunity to own a rare pond-front lot in the highly desirable, gated community of Lake Land’Or! This property gives you the chance to create your dream home with peaceful water views right outside your back door, while surrounding yourself with all the amenities of a true resort-style neighborhood. Lake Land’Or offers two private lakes, multiple fishing ponds, sandy beaches, a full-service marina, two pools, a clubhouse with fitness center, playgrounds, dog parks, walking trails, and courts for tennis, pickleball, and basketball. Whether you prefer mornings spent fishing or kayaking, afternoons by the pool, or evenings gathering with friends and neighbors at community events, life here feels like a year-round getaway. The combination of security, natural beauty, and unmatched amenities makes Lake Land’Or one of Virginia’s most sought-after communities. Waterfront lots like this are limited — don’t wait to secure your piece of paradise today!

9. 2025-10-08
   soldstatus $30,000
10. 1995-04-11
    soldstatus $29,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 21% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,538
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,922
• − Property taxes: −$4,799
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,123
• − Management: −$2,123
• − HOA: −$1,152
• − Depreciation: −$9,308
• Taxable loss: −$12,489
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,997
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,723/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caroline County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100660
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $58,075
• Composite: 43.88/100
• National rank: #2920
• State rank: #95 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lake Land'Or

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Land'Or, VA
• County: Caroline County · 18,392 people
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 18,392
• Household income: $89,247
• Rent vs Own: 14.2% rent · 85.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 192.0

Population outlook (Caroline County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,136 people
• By 2030: 32,973 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 34,255 · +6.6%
• By 2050: 34,843 · +8.4%
• By 2075: 35,134 · +9.3%
• By 2100: 32,184 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caroline

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.8) · D 45.1% · R 53.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.8pp toward R · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: -8.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.8 2020: R+4.2 2016: R+5.1 2012: D+8.2 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -10.95%
• Current HPI: 362.5582
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+970.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $319,950 CVRMLS
• 2025-12-10 Sold (MLS) $58,000 CVRMLS
• 2025-11-20 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records
• 2025-11-06 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2025-10-11 Listed $75,000 CVRMLS
• 2025-10-08 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 1995-04-11 Sold (Public Records) $29,900 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $208 · -31.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.