5643 Hollingworth Trl

Pasadena Hills, FL 33545

$361,000D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,260 sqft · Built 2023 · SingleFamily · Pending · 83 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,759/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,893
• Tax + insurance: −$295
• HOA: −$69
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$579
• Net cashflow: $-78/mo
• Annual: $-934/yr
• Cap rate: 6.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.92%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $101,080

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $361k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-78 ($-934/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $347k (3.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $276k (23.6% below list).
• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($339k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $276k (23.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#723 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: New River Elementary School (math 36% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,560 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 721 students, 57% FRL); Wesley Chapel High School (math 52% / reading 58%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 1,826 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 585 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $39k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.6% in Pasadena Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.