5643 Hollingworth Trl · Pasadena Hills, FL 33545

$361,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,260 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 2023 7,205 sqft lot Est $427k · 15% under $69/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Under Construction. Located off SR-54 in Wesley Chapel, Westgate at Avalon Park will be your home in the center of this fast-growing city. Just 6 miles to I-75, you’ll have convenient access to major surrounding cities such as Downtown Tampa and Lakeland. Schools within the highly rated Pasco County district are near Westgate, as well as a soon-to-be town center. Westgate at Avalon Park features our D. R. Horton Express series homes that include extended tile in the main living and dining area, a stainless-steel appliance package, granite countertops in the kitchen, all concrete block construction on the 1st and 2nd stories, and Home is Connected; D. R. Horton’s Smart Home system. Pictures, photographs, colors, features, and sizes are for illustration purposes only and will vary from the homes as built. Home and community information, including pricing, included features, terms, availability, and amenities, are subject to change and prior sale at any time without notice or obligation. Materials may vary based on availability. D. R. Horton Reserves all Rights.

Key facts

• Granite countertops
• 7,205 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FIRST FLOOR
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• OVERSIZED CENTER ISLAND
• SPACIOUS CLOSET PANTRY
• GENEROUSLY SIZED PATIO
• PEACEFUL CONSERVATION VIEWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $361k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-75 ($-902/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $348k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $276k (23.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $276k (23.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.7% in Pasadena Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#723 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: New River Elementary School (math 36% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,560 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 721 students, 57% FRL); Wesley Chapel High School (math 52% / reading 58%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 1,826 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 585 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($339k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $39k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $276,260 (23.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.89%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $427,140
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
33333 Field Maple Loop	0.10mi	4/3.0	2,372 (+5%)	2mo	$407,500	$172	85
5274 Turtle Bay Dr	0.37mi	4/2.5	2,254 (-0%)	7mo	$425,000	$189	74
6284 Wandering Willow Dr	0.08mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,447 (+8%)	5mo	$420,000	$172	74
33298 Major Oak Dr	0.12mi	4/2.5	2,057 (-9%)	10mo	$427,000	$208	69
33928 Field Maple Loop	0.17mi	4/2.5	2,057 (-9%)	8mo	$425,000	$207	68
33491 Elm Hill Br	0.28mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,447 (+8%)	7mo	$400,000	$163	62
5254 Suncatcher Dr	0.65mi	4/2.5	2,283 (+1%)	10mo	$385,000	$169	58
5465 Suncatcher Dr	0.64mi	4/2.5	2,394 (+6%)	2mo	$480,000	$201	57
5568 Wandering Willow Dr	0.28mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,961 (-13%)	3mo	$375,000	$191	56
5186 Turtle Bay Dr	0.47mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,485 (+10%)	1mo	$399,000	$161	56
32717 Coldwater Creek Loop	0.72mi	4/2.5	2,218 (-2%)	8mo	$345,000	$156	54
5492 Suncatcher Dr	0.64mi	4/2.5	2,037 (-10%)	7mo	$412,000	$202	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-71,484
• Equity at exit: $53,826

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-100,122
• Equity at exit: $31,213

Cash invested: $101,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33545

• Home prices YoY: -17.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 585
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,763 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,893
• Tax from tax record: −$145 /mo · $1,741/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$69
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$580
• Net cashflow: $-75

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,858

Max offer price $347,723

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,250
• Closing costs: $10,830
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
33301 Darley Dale Trl Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	3.0	2447	$2,700	$1.10	5d	1	0.16mi
33405 Hamilton Hill Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	3.0	2605	$2,750	$1.06	5d	1	0.20mi
32978 Tulip Petal Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1758	$1,975	$1.12	10d	1	0.25mi
32952 Tulip Petal Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,100	$1.26	5d	1	0.27mi
32942 Tulip Petal Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	3.0	1758	$2,400	$1.37	24d	1	0.28mi
5320 Little Stream Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	3.0	2254	$2,900	$1.29	24d	1	0.47mi
5320 Little Stream Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	2254	$2,900	$1.29	22d	1	0.47mi
5227 Little Stream Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1601	$2,369	$1.48	17d	1	0.52mi
5344 Suncatcher Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	3.5	3169	$3,300	$1.04	5d	1	0.59mi
4966 Avalon Park Blvd Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1608	$2,350	$1.46	24d	1	0.67mi
6669 Asbury Barnes Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	3.5	2894	$3,500	$1.21	5d	1	1.10mi
32437 Fish Hook Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	1648	$2,249	$1.36	11d	1	1.12mi
33460 Binding Ties Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	3.0	2597	$3,500	$1.35	15d	1	1.27mi
33444 Binding Ties Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	3.0	2595	$3,000	$1.16	22d	1	1.27mi
6888 Gilly Shadow St Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	3.5	3079	$4,200	$1.36	22d	1	1.28mi
33976 Lusitano Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1251	$2,895	$2.31	13d	71	1.28mi
6431 Bradford Hill Ct Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.5	2722	$2,950	$1.08	24d	1	1.34mi
4413 Huddlestone Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.5	2264	$2,385	$1.05	2d	1	1.35mi
6601 Boulder Run Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	2100	$2,400	$1.14	5d	1	1.40mi
31810 Inkley Ct Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1617	$2,100	$1.30	18d	1	1.44mi
5224 Braddock Dr Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.0	2089	$2,150	$1.03	24d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $69 · $828/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-03-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-27
   price $361,000
3. 2026-01-26
   price $380,000
4. 2025-12-18
   listed $400,000 Active
5. 2024-09-13
   historical $2,450
6. 2024-09-13
   listed $2,450
7. 2024-09-09
   historical $2,300
8. 2024-09-02
   price $2,300
9. 2024-08-21
   listed $2,450
10. 2024-06-18
    historical
11. 2024-05-26
    price $400,000
12. 2024-05-10
    price $405,900
13. 2024-04-30
    price $413,900
14. 2024-04-19
    price $420,900
15. 2024-04-06
    listed $426,444 Active
16. 2023-03-15
    soldstatus $364,990 Closed 1087-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1087 chars)

    Under Construction. Located off SR-54 in Wesley Chapel, Westgate at Avalon Park will be your home in the center of this fast-growing city. Just 6 miles to I-75, you’ll have convenient access to major surrounding cities such as Downtown Tampa and Lakeland. Schools within the highly rated Pasco County district are near Westgate, as well as a soon-to-be town center. Westgate at Avalon Park features our D. R. Horton Express series homes that include extended tile in the main living and dining area, a stainless-steel appliance package, granite countertops in the kitchen, all concrete block construction on the 1st and 2nd stories, and Home is Connected; D. R. Horton’s Smart Home system. Pictures, photographs, colors, features, and sizes are for illustration purposes only and will vary from the homes as built. Home and community information, including pricing, included features, terms, availability, and amenities, are subject to change and prior sale at any time without notice or obligation. Materials may vary based on availability. D. R. Horton Reserves all Rights.

17. 2023-01-13
    status Pending 1087-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1087 chars)

    Under Construction. Located off SR-54 in Wesley Chapel, Westgate at Avalon Park will be your home in the center of this fast-growing city. Just 6 miles to I-75, you’ll have convenient access to major surrounding cities such as Downtown Tampa and Lakeland. Schools within the highly rated Pasco County district are near Westgate, as well as a soon-to-be town center. Westgate at Avalon Park features our D. R. Horton Express series homes that include extended tile in the main living and dining area, a stainless-steel appliance package, granite countertops in the kitchen, all concrete block construction on the 1st and 2nd stories, and Home is Connected; D. R. Horton’s Smart Home system. Pictures, photographs, colors, features, and sizes are for illustration purposes only and will vary from the homes as built. Home and community information, including pricing, included features, terms, availability, and amenities, are subject to change and prior sale at any time without notice or obligation. Materials may vary based on availability. D. R. Horton Reserves all Rights.

18. 2023-01-12
    price $364,990 1087-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1087 chars)

    Under Construction. Located off SR-54 in Wesley Chapel, Westgate at Avalon Park will be your home in the center of this fast-growing city. Just 6 miles to I-75, you’ll have convenient access to major surrounding cities such as Downtown Tampa and Lakeland. Schools within the highly rated Pasco County district are near Westgate, as well as a soon-to-be town center. Westgate at Avalon Park features our D. R. Horton Express series homes that include extended tile in the main living and dining area, a stainless-steel appliance package, granite countertops in the kitchen, all concrete block construction on the 1st and 2nd stories, and Home is Connected; D. R. Horton’s Smart Home system. Pictures, photographs, colors, features, and sizes are for illustration purposes only and will vary from the homes as built. Home and community information, including pricing, included features, terms, availability, and amenities, are subject to change and prior sale at any time without notice or obligation. Materials may vary based on availability. D. R. Horton Reserves all Rights.

19. 2023-01-04
    listed $389,990 Active 1087-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1087 chars)

    Under Construction. Located off SR-54 in Wesley Chapel, Westgate at Avalon Park will be your home in the center of this fast-growing city. Just 6 miles to I-75, you’ll have convenient access to major surrounding cities such as Downtown Tampa and Lakeland. Schools within the highly rated Pasco County district are near Westgate, as well as a soon-to-be town center. Westgate at Avalon Park features our D. R. Horton Express series homes that include extended tile in the main living and dining area, a stainless-steel appliance package, granite countertops in the kitchen, all concrete block construction on the 1st and 2nd stories, and Home is Connected; D. R. Horton’s Smart Home system. Pictures, photographs, colors, features, and sizes are for illustration purposes only and will vary from the homes as built. Home and community information, including pricing, included features, terms, availability, and amenities, are subject to change and prior sale at any time without notice or obligation. Materials may vary based on availability. D. R. Horton Reserves all Rights.

20. 2021-12-14
    soldstatus $1,229,655

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,741 · $145/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,996 · $250/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,255/yr (+$105/mo · 72.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,151
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,222
• − Property taxes: −$1,741
• − Insurance: −$1,805
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,652
• − Management: −$2,652
• − HOA: −$828
• − Depreciation: −$10,502
• Taxable loss: −$7,250
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,740
• After-tax cash flow: $838/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pasadena Hills

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #723
• US rank: #15499

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,222
• Household income: $118,889
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 287.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 20% Black 14% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.59%
• Current HPI: 273.0769
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.68%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-70.6% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $361,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $380,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-18 Listed $400,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-13 Rental Removed $2,450 RENT.
• 2024-09-13 Listed for Rent $2,450 RENT.
• 2024-09-09 Rental Removed $2,300 RENT.
• 2024-09-02 Price Changed $2,300 RENT.
• 2024-08-21 Listed for Rent $2,450 RENT.
• 2024-06-18 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-26 Price Changed $400,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-10 Price Changed $405,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-30 Price Changed $413,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-19 Price Changed $420,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-06 Listed $426,444 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-15 Sold (MLS) $364,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-12 Price Changed $364,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-04 Listed $389,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-14 Sold (Public Records) $1,229,655 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,741 · +13.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.