456 4th Ave

Ashton, IA 51232

$119,900D+

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,281 sqft · Built 1954 · SingleFamily · Active · 68 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $943/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$97
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$198
• Net cashflow: $19/mo
• Annual: $226/yr
• Cap rate: 6.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.67%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $33,572

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $19 ($226/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $94k (21.3% below list).
• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $94k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($829 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#673 in IA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment C-, schools F.
• Sheldon Community School District (town): math 74% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #63 of 289 in IA (top 22%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Osceola County population projected at -32% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $79k; list at $120k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (2.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.