456 4th Ave · Ashton, IA 51232

$119,900

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,281 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 66 Days on market

Built 1954 6,336 sqft lot $94/sqft · 23% below area Est $114k · 5% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• ARV discount +5.1/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Take a look at this one story 2 bedroom home close to the city park and the Catholic Church in Ashton. The home has permanent siding and an attached garage. There is a 12 x 16 storage shed in the back yard for all the extras along with a nice deck on the back of the home. Inside the kitchen is open to a dining area. Laundry area is currently on main floor but there are also hookups in the basement. Bathroom has a convenient walk-in shower and storage.

Key facts

• Attached garage
• Laundry area
• Storage shed

Tags

• PERMANENT SIDING
• ATTACHED GARAGE
• STORAGE SHED
• OPEN KITCHEN
• LAUNDRY AREA
• WALK-IN SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $19 ($226/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $94k (21.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $94k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#673 in IA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment C-, schools F.
• Sheldon Community School District (town): math 74% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #63 of 289 in IA (top 22%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($829 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• Osceola County population projected at -32% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $79k; list at $120k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $94,315 (21.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.67%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $113,945
• List price: $119,900
• Delta: 5.23%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
357 3rd Ave	0.11mi	2/1.0	1,120 (-13%)	20mo	$110,000	$98	52
550 Ashton Ave	0.09mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,120 (-13%)	21mo	$98,000	$88	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.42% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $11,933
• Equity at exit: $50,015

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $45,415
• Equity at exit: $74,176

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 51232

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $943 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $570/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$198
• Net cashflow: $19

Break-even live

Break-even rent $919

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,900 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $119,900 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,900 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,900 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,900 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $119,900 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $119,900 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,900 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,900 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 47 DOM
16. 2026-04-20
    price $119,900 455-char remark

    Show marketing remark (455 chars)

    Take a look at this one story 2 bedroom home close to the city park and the Catholic Church in Ashton. The home has permanent siding and an attached garage. There is a 12 x 16 storage shed in the back yard for all the extras along with a nice deck on the back of the home. Inside the kitchen is open to a dining area. Laundry area is currently on main floor but there are also hookups in the basement. Bathroom has a convenient walk-in shower and storage.

17. 2026-04-13
    listed $129,900 Active 455-char remark

    Show marketing remark (455 chars)

    Take a look at this one story 2 bedroom home close to the city park and the Catholic Church in Ashton. The home has permanent siding and an attached garage. There is a 12 x 16 storage shed in the back yard for all the extras along with a nice deck on the back of the home. Inside the kitchen is open to a dining area. Laundry area is currently on main floor but there are also hookups in the basement. Bathroom has a convenient walk-in shower and storage.

18. 2020-12-18
    soldstatus $79,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $570 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,226 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$656/yr (+$55/mo · 115.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,318
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$570
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$905
• − Management: −$905
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable loss: −$1,867
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$448
• After-tax cash flow: $674/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sheldon Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1925980
• Math proficiency: 74% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 78% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $50,644
• Composite: 64.39/100
• National rank: #545
• State rank: #63 of 289 in IA

Livability — Ashton

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #673
• US rank: #15651

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ashton, IA
• Population (ZIP): 713

Population outlook (Osceola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,434 people
• By 2030: 5,046 · -7.1%
• By 2040: 4,339 · -20.2%
• By 2050: 3,711 · -31.7%
• By 2075: 2,649 · -51.3%
• By 2100: 1,975 · -63.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 16% Lithuanian 5% Portuguese 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Osceola

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.2) · D 17.2% · R 81.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.6pp toward R · 2008: -31.7pp · 2024: -64.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.2 2020: R+62.8 2016: R+61.8 2012: R+41.4 2008: R+31.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.42%
• Current HPI: 114.5305
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

+51.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $119,900 NWIA
• 2026-04-13 Listed $129,900 NWIA
• 2020-12-18 Sold (Public Records) $79,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $570 · -12.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.