8738 SW Quail Ave

Lake Mystic, FL 32321

$93,499B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 1990 · Manufactured · Active · 143 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,127/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$490
• Tax + insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $330/mo
• Annual: $3,955/yr
• Cap rate: 10.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.11%
• DSCR: 1.67
• 1% rule: 1.21%
• Cash to close: $26,180

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $93k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $330 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $93k).
• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $82k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($646 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (4.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#852 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Liberty (rural): math 55% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #21 of 73 in FL (top 29%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (4.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.