8738 SW Quail Ave · Lake Mystic, FL 32321

$93,499

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured public records · 143 Days on market

Built 1990 9,975 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.3/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Calling all hunters! This property is the perfect hunting camp located in a community within the Apalachicola National Forest, right in the highly sought-after dog hunting area for deer. The single-wide 3-bedroom 2-bath mobile home offers a functional and affordable base camp for your outdoor adventures. Features include 10 dog kennels with concrete floors, ideal for serious dog hunters, a storage shed for equipment, and a covered back patio for relaxing, cleaning game, or entertaining after a long day in the woods. Surrounded by vast public hunting land, this is a rare opportunity to own a ready-to-use camp in one of North Florida's most popular hunting destinations.

Key facts

• Dog kennels
• Storage shed
• Covered back patio

Tags

• DOG KENNELS
• STORAGE SHED
• COVERED BACK PATIO

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Oversized parking; 5 parking spaces
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Residential manufactured home; New construction
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Kennel/dog run; Storage structure; Satellite dish; Cleared corner lot; County road frontage

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Heat pump; Electric heating; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Vaulted ceilings; Fireplace

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $93k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $330 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $93k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#852 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Liberty (rural): math 55% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #21 of 73 in FL (top 29%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($646 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (4.4% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (4.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $82,279 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.11%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.37% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $39,157
• Equity at exit: $49,421

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.89×
• Total profit: $101,877
• Equity at exit: $82,483

Cash invested: $26,180 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32321

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,127 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$490
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $379/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $330

Break-even live

Break-even rent $710

Max offer price $93,499

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,375
• Closing costs: $2,805
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $93,499 Active 143 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $93,499 Active 142 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $93,499 Active 141 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $93,499 Active 140 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $93,499 Active 138 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $93,499 Active 137 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $93,499 Active 135 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $93,499 Active 134 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $93,499 Active 133 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $93,499 Active 132 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $93,499 Active 128 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $93,499 Active 127 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $93,499 Active 126 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $93,499 Active 125 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $93,499 Active 124 DOM
16. 2026-01-23
    listed $93,499 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $379 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $776 · $65/mo
• Expected delta: +$397/yr (+$33/mo · 105.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,525
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,237
• − Property taxes: −$379
• − Insurance: −$467
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,082
• − Management: −$1,082
• − Depreciation: −$2,720
• Taxable income: $2,558
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$614
• After-tax cash flow: $3,341/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty
• NCES district ID: 1201170
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,647
• Composite: 46.26/100
• National rank: #2482
• State rank: #21 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Mystic

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #852
• US rank: #21771

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,792

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,331 people
• By 2030: 8,335 · +0.0%
• By 2040: 8,300 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 8,259 · -0.9%
• By 2075: 7,624 · -8.5%
• By 2100: 6,041 · -27.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.8) · D 16.2% · R 83.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.0pp · 2024: -66.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.8 2020: R+60.4 2016: R+57.4 2012: R+41.4 2008: R+44.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.37%
• Current HPI: 217.9807
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-23 Listed $93,499 RAFGC

Property tax history

+14.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $379 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.