77 E 12 St Unit 17K

New York, NY 10003

$648,000C-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 550 sqft · Built 1963 · Condo · Active · 205 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $7,536/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,398
• Tax + insurance: −$1,080
• HOA: −$1,876
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,583
• Net cashflow: $-401/mo
• Annual: $-4,812/yr
• Cap rate: 5.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.65%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 1.16%
• Cash to close: $181,440

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $648k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-401 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $590k (9.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $648k).
• It's been on market 205 days — a 12% lower offer ($570k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $570k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $65k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $60k appreciation (9.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.2%/yr); 361 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 4,467 units permitted in New York County in 2024 (4,463 in 5+ unit buildings).
• New York County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$104k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $7,536/mo this rent would consume 59% of the median local household income ($154k/yr) (locally 3480% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 205 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?