233 Baysden Pond Rd

Potters Hill, NC 28521

$207,000D-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Built 2011 · Manufactured · Pending · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,400/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,086
• Tax + insurance: −$182
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $-162/mo
• Annual: $-1,943/yr
• Cap rate: 5.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.35%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $57,960

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $207k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-162 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (13.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (32.4% below list).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $140k (32.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#681 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Duplin County Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #153 of 178 in NC (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Chinquapin Elementary (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #694 of 1,410 statewide, top 53%, 532 students, 99% FRL); East Duplin High (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #334 of 535 statewide, top 64%, 861 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 74% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 43% at this address vs 28% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Duplin County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 134 units permitted in Duplin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Duplin County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $108k; list at $207k implies a 93% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.