233 Baysden Pond Rd · Potters Hill, NC 28521

$207,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 19 Days on market

Built 2011 1.20 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• Appreciation +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Land, garage, great kitchen, oh my! This place has it all! Located in a peaceful country setting on over an acre, with a fishing pond only a hop, skip and a jump away. Come hang your stockings by this lovely fireplace this Christmas! Newer metal roof, oversized 32 x 24 garage, HVAC recently serviced, new laminate flooring and complete interior repaint. Schedule your viewing now!

Key facts

• Bright kitchen
• Central island
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• BRIGHT KITCHEN
• CENTRAL ISLAND
• WATER FILTRATION SYSTEM
• HARD-SURFACE FLOORING
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Unpaved parking
• Utilities: Public water; Water connected; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story (one level); Entry level: 1; Vinyl siding and frame construction
• Construction: Metal roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Front porch; Rear porch; Shed(s); Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 8
• Flooring: Carpet; See remarks
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Electric heating; Other heating
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); Kitchen island; Ceiling fan(s); Accessible full bath; No basement (crawl space)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dedicated laundry room; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $207k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-162 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (13.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (32.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $140k (32.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#681 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Duplin County Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #153 of 178 in NC (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Chinquapin Elementary (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #694 of 1,410 statewide, top 53%, 532 students, 99% FRL); East Duplin High (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #334 of 535 statewide, top 64%, 861 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 74% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 43% at this address vs 28% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Duplin County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 134 units permitted in Duplin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Duplin County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $108k; list at $207k implies a 93% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,000 (32.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.35%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.33% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $53,502
• Equity at exit: $134,518

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.83×
• Total profit: $164,277
• Equity at exit: $247,822

Cash invested: $57,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28521

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,086
• Tax from tax record: −$96 /mo · $1,153/yr
• Insurance: −$86
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $-162

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,605

Max offer price $178,402

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-45	-5% $-103	+0% $-162	+5% $-220	+10% $-279
Rent	-10% $-272	-5% $-217	+0% $-162	+5% $-107	+10% $-51
Rate	-1.0pp $-58	-0.5pp $-109	base $-162	+0.5pp $-216	+1.0pp $-270

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,750
• Closing costs: $6,210
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2064 Fountaintown Rd Chinquapin, NC	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,400	$1.33	22d	1	0.62mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-30
   statusdays on market $207,000 Pending 19 DOM
2. 2026-05-11
   listed $207,000 Active
3. 2017-12-21
   soldstatus $107,500 381-char remark

   Show marketing remark (381 chars)

   Land, garage, great kitchen, oh my! This place has it all! Located in a peaceful country setting on over an acre, with a fishing pond only a hop, skip and a jump away. Come hang your stockings by this lovely fireplace this Christmas! Newer metal roof, oversized 32 x 24 garage, HVAC recently serviced, new laminate flooring and complete interior repaint. Schedule your viewing now!

4. 2017-12-21
   soldstatus $107,500

   Show marketing remark (381 chars)

   Land, garage, great kitchen, oh my! This place has it all! Located in a peaceful country setting on over an acre, with a fishing pond only a hop, skip and a jump away. Come hang your stockings by this lovely fireplace this Christmas! Newer metal roof, oversized 32 x 24 garage, HVAC recently serviced, new laminate flooring and complete interior repaint. Schedule your viewing now!

5. 2017-11-08
   listed $109,900 381-char remark

   Show marketing remark (381 chars)

   Land, garage, great kitchen, oh my! This place has it all! Located in a peaceful country setting on over an acre, with a fishing pond only a hop, skip and a jump away. Come hang your stockings by this lovely fireplace this Christmas! Newer metal roof, oversized 32 x 24 garage, HVAC recently serviced, new laminate flooring and complete interior repaint. Schedule your viewing now!

6. 2017-09-04
   soldstatus $63,247 305-char remark

   Show marketing remark (305 chars)

   Spacious inside and out this 3 bedroom 2 bath home has some really great features for this really great price! Come check this home out with over 1.2 acre lot , detached work shop, huge living room and family room with fireplace, kitchen with a center island, master bedroom with a nice large master bath.

7. 2017-07-27
   listed $54,500 305-char remark

   Show marketing remark (305 chars)

   Spacious inside and out this 3 bedroom 2 bath home has some really great features for this really great price! Come check this home out with over 1.2 acre lot , detached work shop, huge living room and family room with fireplace, kitchen with a center island, master bedroom with a nice large master bath.

8. 2013-02-05
   soldstatus $133,500
9. 2011-05-02
   soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,153 · $96/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,697 · $141/mo
• Expected delta: +$544/yr (+$45/mo · 47.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,595
• − Property taxes: −$1,153
• − Insurance: −$1,035
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,344
• − Management: −$1,344
• − Depreciation: −$6,022
• Taxable loss: −$5,693
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,366
• After-tax cash flow: $-576/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duplin County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3701200
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $34,900
• Composite: 22.66/100
• National rank: #8052
• State rank: #153 of 178 in NC

Livability — Potters Hill

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #681
• US rank: #24724

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,554

Population outlook (Duplin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,701 people
• By 2030: 56,333 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 52,736 · -8.6%
• By 2050: 48,426 · -16.1%
• By 2075: 36,339 · -37.0%
• By 2100: 23,866 · -58.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 12% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Duplin

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.9) · D 35.2% · R 64.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.5pp toward R · 2008: -9.4pp · 2024: -28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.9 2020: R+22.1 2016: R+19.2 2012: R+11.8 2008: R+9.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.33%
• Current HPI: 310.3811
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+276.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $207,000 Hive MLS
• 2017-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $107,500 Public Records
• 2017-12-21 Sold (MLS) $107,500 Hive MLS
• 2017-11-08 Listed $109,900 Hive MLS
• 2017-09-04 Sold (MLS) $63,247 Hive MLS
• 2017-07-27 Listed $54,500 Hive MLS
• 2013-02-05 Sold (Public Records) $133,500 Public Records
• 2011-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,153 · +51.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.