Plan 1 Plan

French Valley, CA 92596

$424,990C-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,497 sqft · Built — · Townhouse · Active · 161 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,605/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,167
• Tax + insurance: −$689
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$757
• Net cashflow: $-7/mo
• Annual: $-85/yr
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.07%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $115,688

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $425k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7 ($-85/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $412k (3.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $361k (15.2% below list).
• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($374k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $361k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $44k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $41k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#655 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Temecula Valley Unified (urban): math 55% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #173 of 1,400 in CA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 355 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $116k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$71k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.6% in French Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($133k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.