Plan 1 Plan · French Valley, CA 92596

$424,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,497 sqft · Townhouse · 161 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0

Key facts

• Half bath
• Walk-in closet
• Primary suite

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• HALF BATH
• PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• GRAND PRIMARY BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $429,990

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached 2-car parking (2 total parking spaces, including 2 garage spaces)
• Home design: Single-family plan (Plan 1)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,497 (provided)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Plan 1 new construction

🏗️ New construction. The $424,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $413,172.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7 ($-85/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $412k (3.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $361k (15.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $361k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.6% in French Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#655 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Temecula Valley Unified (urban): math 55% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #173 of 1,400 in CA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 355 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($133k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $44k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $41k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $116k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$71k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($374k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $360,538 (15.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.07%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $413,172
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
34483 Ciruela Ave	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,497 (0%)	13mo	$404,990	$271	86
34543 Ciruela Ave	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,497 (0%)	4mo	$399,990	$267	80
34581 Ciruela Ave	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,497 (0%)	4mo	$461,385	$308	79
34447 Ciruela Ave	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,497 (0%)	11mo	$419,990	$281	74
34611 Ciruela Ave	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,560 (+4%)	3mo	$429,990	$276	74
34623 Ciruela Ave	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,560 (+4%)	4mo	$433,990	$278	73
34435 Ciruela Ave	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,497 (0%)	13mo	$422,885	$282	72
34513 Ciruela Ave	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,560 (+4%)	11mo	$429,990	$276	66
34549 Ciruela Ave	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,601 (+7%)	9mo	$425,370	$266	64
34477 Ciruela Ave	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,601 (+7%)	10mo	$434,990	$272	63
34429 Ciruela Ave	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,601 (+7%)	10mo	$479,090	$299	63
34465 Ciruela Ave	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,601 (+7%)	12mo	$429,990	$269	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $214,061
• Equity at exit: $372,218

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.29×
• Total profit: $611,920
• Equity at exit: $802,702

Cash invested: $115,688 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92596

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 355
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,605 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,167
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$516 /mo · $6,198/yr
• Insurance: −$172
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$757
• Net cashflow: $-7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,614

Max offer price $412,146

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $103,293
• Closing costs: $12,395
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
34543 Ciruela AVE French Valley, CA	3.0	2.5	1497	$3,400	$2.27	2d	1	0.35mi
33014 Marin Fields Rd Winchester, CA	4.0	2.0	1779	$3,795	$2.13	44d	1	0.44mi
34495 Agave Dr #1105 Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1399	$3,250	$2.32	10d	1	1.03mi
34495 Agave Dr #20106 Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1400	$3,050	$2.18	18d	1	1.03mi
34495 Agave Dr Bldg 24 Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,645	$1.89	24d	1	1.03mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $424,990 Active 161 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $424,990 Active 160 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $424,990 Active 159 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $424,990 Active 158 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $424,990 Active 156 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   listed $429,990 Active 152 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,265
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,144
• − Property taxes: −$6,198
• − Insurance: −$2,066
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,461
• − Management: −$3,461
• − Depreciation: −$12,020
• Taxable loss: −$7,085
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,700
• After-tax cash flow: $1,615/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Temecula Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600028
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $84,032
• Composite: 57.48/100
• National rank: #2264
• State rank: #173 of 1400 in CA

Livability — French Valley

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #655
• US rank: #20351

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: French Valley, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 38,981
• Household income: $132,538
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 591.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 16% Asian 12% Black 6% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.43%
• Current HPI: 332.169
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B