39 Red Mill Rd

Parish, NY 13131

$192,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Built 1966 · SingleFamily · Active · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,452/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,007
• Tax + insurance: −$347
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$305
• Net cashflow: $-207/mo
• Annual: $-2,487/yr
• Cap rate: 5.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.63%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $53,760

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $192k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-207 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $155k (19.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $145k (24.4% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $145k (24.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#976 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Altmar-Parish-Williamstown Central School District (rural): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #573 of 590 in NY (top 97%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.