39 Red Mill Rd · Parish, NY 13131

$192,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1966 2.48 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

39 Red Mill Road, Parish, NY Nestled on 2.48 acres, this charming ranch offers peaceful country living with room to enjoy the outdoors. The main level features 1,040 square feet of comfortable living space, including 2 bedrooms and 1 full bath, with a practical layout that feels warm and inviting. An attached garage adds everyday convenience, while the metal roof offers long-lasting durability and peace of mind. A walk-out lower level, already partially finished, provides valuable additional space and flexibility—perfect for a family room, hobby area, home office, or future expansion. With its generous acreage, attached garage, walk-out potential, and quiet setting, this property i

Key facts

• 2.48 acres
• Walk-out lower level
• Metal roof

Tags

• 2.48 ACRES
• ATTACHED GARAGE
• METAL ROOF
• WALK-OUT LOWER LEVEL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (1 car)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Circuit breaker electrical service; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing construction
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Block foundation; Built (existing)
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Private yard; See remarks

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Microwave; Solid surface counters
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate; Tile; Varies
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Oil forced-air heating; Window cooling units
• Interior features: Country kitchen; Kitchen and family room combined; Sliding glass doors; Solid surface counters; Programmable thermostat; Workshop; Walk-out basement access; Sump pump
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Washer; Dryer; Oil water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $192k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-207 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $155k (19.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $145k (24.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $145k (24.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#976 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Altmar-Parish-Williamstown Central School District (rural): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #573 of 590 in NY (top 97%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $145,166 (24.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.63%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $91,408
• Equity at exit: $172,969

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.20×
• Total profit: $279,638
• Equity at exit: $373,014

Cash invested: $53,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13131

• Home prices YoY: 32.2%
• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,452 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,007
• Tax from tax record: −$267 /mo · $3,206/yr
• Insurance: −$80
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$305
• Net cashflow: $-207

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,714

Max offer price $155,392

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,000
• Closing costs: $5,760
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $192,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 693-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $192,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,206 · $267/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,225 · $269/mo
• Expected delta: +$19/yr (+$2/mo · 0.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,420
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,755
• − Property taxes: −$3,206
• − Insurance: −$960
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,394
• − Management: −$1,394
• − Depreciation: −$5,585
• Taxable loss: −$5,874
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,410
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,077/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Altmar-Parish-Williamstown Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3602820
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $49,728
• Composite: 27.01/100
• National rank: #7063
• State rank: #573 of 590 in NY

Livability — Parish

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #976
• US rank: #19100

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,856

Population outlook (Oswego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 114,465 people
• By 2030: 109,968 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 99,205 · -13.3%
• By 2050: 87,979 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 65,100 · -43.1%
• By 2100: 47,117 · -58.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oswego

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.2) · D 37.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -24.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.2 2020: R+20.2 2016: R+23.2 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 105.37%
• Current HPI: 432.386
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $192,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,206 · +12.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.