255 Private Road 8057

Kirbyville, TX 75933

$49,900B+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 576 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 88 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $797/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax + insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$167
• Net cashflow: $160/mo
• Annual: $1,917/yr
• Cap rate: 13.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.48%
• DSCR: 2.09
• 1% rule: 1.60%
• Cash to close: $13,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $160 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($797 rent vs $50k).
• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($47k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $47k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($345 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (5.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,133 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, health & safety A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Newton ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #661 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP.
• Newton County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — The independent image shows significant damage.
• Major: siding — The independent image shows peeling paint and wear.
• Major: deck flooring — The listing photo shows worn and uneven planks.
• Major: interior walls — The listing photo shows peeling paint and wear.
• Major: HVAC units — The listing photo shows rust and wear.
• Major: landscaping — The listing photo shows overgrown vegetation and no landscaping features.