255 Private Road 8057 · Kirbyville, TX 75933

$49,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 576 sqft · SingleFamily · 88 Days on market

Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 88 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $160 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($797 rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $47k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,133 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, health & safety A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Newton ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #661 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($345 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (5.1% local appreciation)).
• Newton County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($47k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $46,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.48%
• DSCR: 2.09
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.08% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $22,003
• Equity at exit: $28,529

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.14×
• Total profit: $57,786
• Equity at exit: $49,447

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75933

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $797 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $748/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$167
• Net cashflow: $160

Break-even live

Break-even rent $595

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $194	-5% $177	+0% $160	+5% $143	+10% $125
Rent	-10% $97	-5% $128	+0% $160	+5% $191	+10% $223
Rate	-1.0pp $185	-0.5pp $172	base $160	+0.5pp $147	+1.0pp $134

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $49,900 Active 88 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $49,900 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,900 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,900 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,900 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,900 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,900 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,900 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $49,900 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $49,900 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $49,900 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $49,900 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,900 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,900 Active 70 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,900 Active 69 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,900 Active 68 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 67 DOM
18. 2026-03-25
    listed $49,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone A · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,567
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$748
• − Insurance: −$1,752
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$765
• − Management: −$765
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $1,289
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$309
• After-tax cash flow: $1,608/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home requires extensive repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and increase its value. The roof, siding, deck flooring, interior walls, HVAC units, and landscaping all need attention.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The independent image shows significant damage.
• Major siding — The independent image shows peeling paint and wear.
• Major deck flooring — The listing photo shows worn and uneven planks.
• Major interior walls — The listing photo shows peeling paint and wear.
• Major HVAC units — The listing photo shows rust and wear.
• Major landscaping — The listing photo shows overgrown vegetation and no landscaping features.

Value-add opportunities

• Both roof repair — Fixing the roof will improve the home's appearance and increase its value.
• Both siding repair — Repairing the siding will improve the home's appearance and increase its value.
• Both deck flooring replacement — Replacing the deck flooring will improve the home's appearance and increase its value.
• Both interior wall repair — Repairing the interior walls will improve the home's appearance and increase its value.
• Both HVAC replacement — Replacing the HVAC units will improve the home's comfort and increase its value.
• Both landscaping — Landscaping will improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · The independent image shows significant damage.	Major	$15,000–50,000
siding · The independent image shows peeling paint and wear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
deck flooring · The listing photo shows worn and uneven planks.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · The listing photo shows peeling paint and wear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC units · The listing photo shows rust and wear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · The listing photo shows overgrown vegetation and no landscaping features.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$90,000–300,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both roof repair — Fixing the roof will improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both siding repair — Repairing the siding will improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both deck flooring replacement — Replacing the deck flooring will improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both interior wall repair — Repairing the interior walls will improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both HVAC replacement — Replacing the HVAC units will improve the home's comfort and increase its value. ↑
• Both landscaping — Landscaping will improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832730
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $34,557
• Composite: 24.26/100
• National rank: #7719
• State rank: #661 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kirbyville

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1133
• US rank: #20020

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,506

Population outlook (Newton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,123 people
• By 2030: 12,567 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 11,431 · -12.9%
• By 2050: 10,393 · -20.8%
• By 2075: 8,230 · -37.3%
• By 2100: 6,038 · -54.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 5% Two or more races 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Scottish 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Chinese 3% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Newton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.6) · D 16.6% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.4pp toward R · 2008: -32.2pp · 2024: -66.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.6 2020: R+60.9 2016: R+49.5 2012: R+43.3 2008: R+32.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.08%
• Current HPI: 167.3432
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Listed $49,900 BBOR