2852 N Gulfwind Dr

Tallahassee, FL 32303

$168,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 990 sqft · Built 1993 · Townhouse · Active · 88 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,296/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$881
• Tax + insurance: −$160
• HOA: −$28
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $-45/mo
• Annual: $-544/yr
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.16%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $47,040

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $168k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-45 ($-544/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (4.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (22.9% below list).
• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $130k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#19 in FL, #429 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D.
• Leon (urban): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #33 of 73 in FL (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 238 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,765 units permitted in Leon County in 2024 (975 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Leon County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $112k; 49% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.2% in Tallahassee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.