2852 N Gulfwind Dr · Tallahassee, FL 32303

$168,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 990 sqft · Townhouse public records · 88 Days on market

Built 1993 3,484 sqft lot Est $171k · at est. $28/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +8.4/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Bring your investors to this well maintained and leased 2-2. Leased for $850.00 per month. Lease ends September 7,2021. Strong rental history and perfect location for your rentals. Shown by appointment only with 24 hour notice. The available Showing times are from Monday-Friday from 12:00-2:00 p. m. Sold as is with right to inspect. Recent paint and siding March 2021, Interior painting 2018, a new HVAC June 2018.

Key facts

• End unit townhome
• Recent updates
• New siding

Tags

• END UNIT TOWNHOME
• RECENT UPDATES
• NEW SIDING
• BACK PATIO
• NO BACKYARD NEIGHBORS
• EASY ACCESS TO I10

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association fee $337; HOA covers common area maintenance and grounds maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Security: Owned security system
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story; Brick and fiber cement exterior; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and fiber cement construction; Built on slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Porch; Partial fencing; Public maintained paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry; Dishwasher; Disposal; Oven; Stove; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 2 (12 x 12)
• Flooring: Plank; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Wood heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Electric cooling
• Interior features: End unit; Tray ceilings; Vaulted ceilings; Stall shower; Window treatments; Pantry; Split bedroom floor plan; Walk-in closets; Has fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $168k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-45 ($-544/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (4.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (22.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $130k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.2% in Tallahassee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#19 in FL, #429 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D.
• Leon (urban): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #33 of 73 in FL (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 238 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,765 units permitted in Leon County in 2024 (975 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Leon County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $112k; 49% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $129,606 (22.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.16%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $171,270
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1956 Carp Ln	0.09mi	2/2.0	990 (0%)	7mo	$144,000	$145	90
2884 W Gulfwind Dr	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,040 (+5%)	4mo	$190,200	$183	86
2843 Sunvalley Ct	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,040 (+5%)	4mo	$179,500	$173	85
2726 Via Milano Ave Unit A	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,008 (+2%)	4mo	$179,000	$178	78
2711 Via Milano Ave Unit A	0.44mi	2/2.0	960 (-3%)	2mo	$170,000	$177	73
2720 Via Milano Unit B	0.39mi	2/2.0	964 (-3%)	8mo	$171,000	$177	71
4027 Catawba St Unit B	0.51mi	2/2.0	1,008 (+2%)	4mo	$145,000	$144	69
4013 Catawba St Unit B	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,008 (+2%)	5mo	$169,900	$169	69
2706 Via Milano Ave Unit A	0.49mi	2/2.0	1,008 (+2%)	8mo	$175,000	$174	68
2331 Via Sardinia St	0.53mi	2/2.0	1,008 (+2%)	6mo	$168,000	$167	67
2018 Pecan Ct	0.67mi	2/2.0	988 (-0%)	2mo	$165,000	$167	67
3906 Gaffney Loop	0.75mi	2/2.0	984 (-1%)	3mo	$159,900	$163	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-29,990
• Equity at exit: $25,049

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-29,337
• Equity at exit: $14,526

Cash invested: $47,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32303

• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 238
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,296 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$881
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,082/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$28
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $-45

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,353

Max offer price $159,993

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $50	-5% $2	+0% $-45	+5% $-93	+10% $-140
Rent	-10% $-148	-5% $-97	+0% $-45	+5% $6	+10% $57
Rate	-1.0pp $39	-0.5pp $-3	base $-45	+0.5pp $-89	+1.0pp $-133

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,000
• Closing costs: $5,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2749 Pecan Rd Tallahassee, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	14d	1	0.58mi
3875 Gaffney Loop Tallahassee, FL	2.0	2.0	984	$1,300	$1.32	21d	1	0.72mi
2765 W Tharpe St Tallahassee, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	739	$1,000	$1.35	14d	1	0.79mi
1557 Devoe St Unit 2 Tallahassee, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,350	$1.80	21d	1	0.93mi
850 Capital Walk Dr Tallahassee, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1152	$1,442	$1.25	14d	21	1.14mi
2327 Parrot Ln Tallahassee, FL	3.0	2.0	1088	$1,300	$1.19	21d	1	1.31mi
2259 Parrot Ln Tallahassee, FL	2.0	2.0	992	$1,275	$1.29	21d	1	1.34mi
2350 Wanda Way Tallahassee, FL	2.0–3.0	1.0	861	$1,200	$1.39	21d	1	1.35mi
2412 Atlas Rd Tallahassee, FL	3.0	1.5	1081	$1,200	$1.11	21d	1	1.37mi
2401 Atlas Rd Unit B Tallahassee, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	21d	1	1.40mi
2616 Mission Rd Tallahassee, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$1,195	$1.59	14d	12	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $28 · $336/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-06
   price $168,000
2. 2026-02-28
   listed $170,000 Active
3. 2021-09-10
   soldstatus $112,500 Closed 418-char remark

   Show marketing remark (418 chars)

   Bring your investors to this well maintained and leased 2-2. Leased for $850.00 per month. Lease ends September 7,2021. Strong rental history and perfect location for your rentals. Shown by appointment only with 24 hour notice. The available Showing times are from Monday-Friday from 12:00-2:00 p. m. Sold as is with right to inspect. Recent paint and siding March 2021, Interior painting 2018, a new HVAC June 2018.

4. 2021-07-30
   historical Active Under Contract 418-char remark

   Show marketing remark (418 chars)

   Bring your investors to this well maintained and leased 2-2. Leased for $850.00 per month. Lease ends September 7,2021. Strong rental history and perfect location for your rentals. Shown by appointment only with 24 hour notice. The available Showing times are from Monday-Friday from 12:00-2:00 p. m. Sold as is with right to inspect. Recent paint and siding March 2021, Interior painting 2018, a new HVAC June 2018.

5. 2021-07-22
   price $110,000 418-char remark

   Show marketing remark (418 chars)

   Bring your investors to this well maintained and leased 2-2. Leased for $850.00 per month. Lease ends September 7,2021. Strong rental history and perfect location for your rentals. Shown by appointment only with 24 hour notice. The available Showing times are from Monday-Friday from 12:00-2:00 p. m. Sold as is with right to inspect. Recent paint and siding March 2021, Interior painting 2018, a new HVAC June 2018.

6. 2021-07-21
   listed $115,000 Active 418-char remark

   Show marketing remark (418 chars)

   Bring your investors to this well maintained and leased 2-2. Leased for $850.00 per month. Lease ends September 7,2021. Strong rental history and perfect location for your rentals. Shown by appointment only with 24 hour notice. The available Showing times are from Monday-Friday from 12:00-2:00 p. m. Sold as is with right to inspect. Recent paint and siding March 2021, Interior painting 2018, a new HVAC June 2018.

7. 2021-05-18
   historical
8. 2021-05-17
   status Active
9. 2021-04-01
   status Active
10. 2021-04-01
    listed Active Under Contract
11. 2021-03-18
    listed $100,000
12. 1993-10-06
    soldstatus $54,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,082 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,394 · $116/mo
• Expected delta: +$312/yr (+$26/mo · 28.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,553
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,411
• − Property taxes: −$1,082
• − Insurance: −$840
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,244
• − Management: −$1,244
• − HOA: −$336
• − Depreciation: −$4,887
• Taxable loss: −$3,492
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$838
• After-tax cash flow: $294/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Leon
• NCES district ID: 1201110
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,339
• Composite: 42.84/100
• National rank: #3131
• State rank: #33 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tallahassee

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #429

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C+ Employment D Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tallahassee, FL
• County: Leon County · 294,472 people
• City population: 294,472
• Metro: Tallahassee, FL
• Population (ZIP): 49,785
• Household income: $62,275
• Rent vs Own: 48.8% rent · 51.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2919.0

Population outlook (Leon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,507 people
• By 2030: 330,677 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 358,465 · +13.6%
• By 2050: 386,804 · +22.6%
• By 2075: 465,480 · +47.5%
• By 2100: 519,959 · +64.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 34% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Leon

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.8) · D 60.3% · R 38.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 24.3pp · 2024: 21.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.8 2020: D+28.3 2016: D+25.1 2012: D+23.6 2008: D+24.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -255.24%
• Current HPI: 241.3131
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Tallahassee, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+206.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $168,000 CATRS
• 2026-02-28 Listed $170,000 CATRS
• 2021-09-10 Sold (MLS) $112,500 CATRS
• 2021-07-30 Contingent — CATRS
• 2021-07-22 Price Changed $110,000 CATRS
• 2021-07-21 Listed $115,000 CATRS
• 2021-05-18 Listing Removed — CATRS
• 2021-05-17 Relisted — CATRS
• 2021-04-01 Relisted — CATRS
• 2021-04-01 Listed — CATRS
• 2021-03-18 Listed $100,000 CATRS
• 1993-10-06 Sold (Public Records) $54,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,082 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.