4019 Ancient Honor Dr

Brookshire, TX 77423

$274,900D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,388 sqft · Built 2025 · Land · Pending · 51 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,007/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$219
• HOA: −$63
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $-139/mo
• Annual: $-1,664/yr
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.16%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $76,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-139 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (8.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (27.0% below list).
• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $201k (27.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#960 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Dean Leaman J H School (math 59% / reading 56%, grade B, #206 of 1,662 statewide, top 13%, 2,191 students, 32% FRL); Fulshear H S (math 52% / reading 70%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 2,464 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1014 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.