5151 Highway A1a Hwy #211

Indian River Shores, FL 32963

$469,000D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,701 sqft · Built 1974 · Townhouse · Active · 94 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,975/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,459
• Tax + insurance: −$486
• HOA: −$1,039
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,045
• Net cashflow: $-54/mo
• Annual: $-645/yr
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.12%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $131,320

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $469k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-54 ($-645/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $459k (2.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $469k).
• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($427k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $427k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#517 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Indian River (other): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #35 of 73 in FL (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Beachland Elementary School (math 54% / reading 58%, grade C+, #832 of 2,144 statewide, top 40%, 523 students, 39% FRL); Gifford Middle School (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D+, #305 of 571 statewide, top 54%, 582 students, 72% FRL); Vero Beach High School (math 28% / reading 43%, grade F, #367 of 667 statewide, top 57%, 2,847 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 21% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.0%/yr); 501 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 564 units permitted in Indian River County in 2024 (281 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Indian River County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $340k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 1.5% in Indian River Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($150k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?