494 E Van Haven Rd

Paulden, AZ 86334

$159,000D-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 868 sqft · Built 1978 · Manufactured · Active · 241 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,078/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax + insurance: −$265
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$226
• Net cashflow: $-247/mo
• Annual: $-2,966/yr
• Cap rate: 4.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.66%
• DSCR: 0.70
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $44,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-247 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $123k (22.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (32.2% below list).
• It's been on market 241 days — a 12% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $108k (32.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#202 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Chino Valley Unified District (4474) (town): math 24% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #112 of 249 in AZ (top 45%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Territorial Early Childhood Center (634 students, 54% FRL); Heritage Middle School (math 22% / reading 33%, grade F, #96 of 218 statewide, top 44%, 536 students, 54% FRL); Chino Valley High School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #281 of 381 statewide, top 75%, 789 students, 43% FRL).
• Market conditions: 197 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $36k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→12/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.0% in Paulden — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 241 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.