100 River Bend Rd #107

Reedsport, OR 97467

$105,000B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Built 1988 · Manufactured · Pending · 162 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,850/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax + insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $795/mo
• Annual: $9,536/yr
• Cap rate: 15.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.44%
• DSCR: 2.44
• 1% rule: 1.76%
• Cash to close: $29,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $795 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• It's been on market 162 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#224 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, schools F.
• Reedsport SD 105 (town): math 28% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #143 of 183 in OR (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 69 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 190 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Douglas County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $72k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 15.4% vs local median 3.1% in Reedsport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 162 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.