100 River Bend Rd #107 · Reedsport, OR 97467

$105,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 162 Days on market

Built 1988 Est $101k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.9/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This is a rare gem in the park with more covered parking than any other for you buyers that have lots of toys and hobbies. Three large covered areas makes this one extra special. This 2 bedroom 2 bath home with large study has been well taken care of. Recent upgrades are new water heater and stove/hood, newer appliances in kitchen, freshly painted kitchen, dining and living room. Carpets cleaned thru out home. Outside was gone thru and cleaned up and painted where needed. Outbuilding has new panels, shelf and workbench for home projects. Park has lovely paths to walk and enjoy the wildlife around the river. Space rent is $630.00/mo and includes sewer and water. Must be park approved. (2 sma

Key facts

• New stove hood
• Recent upgrades
• Covered parking

Tags

• COVERED PARKING
• RECENT UPGRADES
• NEW WATER HEATER
• NEW STOVE HOOD
• NEWER APPLIANCES
• FRESHLY PAINTED KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $795 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.4% vs local median 3.1% in Reedsport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#224 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, schools F.
• Reedsport SD 105 (town): math 28% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #143 of 183 in OR (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 69 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 190 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Douglas County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 162 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $72k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 162 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.44%
• DSCR: 2.44
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $101,304
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
100 River Bend Rd #107	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,512 (0%)	1mo	$90,000	$60	99
100 River Bend Rd #91	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,512 (0%)	1mo	$120,000	$79	99
100 River Bend Rd #82	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,512 (0%)	8mo	$130,000	$86	94
100 River Bend Rd #108	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,512 (0%)	8mo	$45,000	$30	93
100 River Bend Rd #66	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (0%)	4mo	$63,000	$42	91
100 River Bend Rd #103	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (0%)	6mo	$95,000	$63	90
100 River Bend Rd #115	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,456 (-4%)	5mo	$127,000	$87	90
100 River Bend Rd #36	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,534 (+2%)	9mo	$103,000	$67	85
100 River Bend Rd	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (0%)	11mo	$97,000	$64	80
100 River Bend Rd #17	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,296 (-14%)	6mo	$105,000	$81	71
100 River Bend Rd #25	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (-14%)	3mo	$119,000	$92	68
1000 N 8th St #63	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,556 (+3%)	12mo	$47,000	$30	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $33,592
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.21×
• Total profit: $94,392
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97467

• Home prices YoY: -10.9%
• Active inventory: 69
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,850 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $869/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $795

Break-even live

Break-even rent $844

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
870 York St Reedsport, OR	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,850	$1.48	43d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-18
   status Active
3. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-03
   status Active
5. 2026-01-12
   status Active
6. 2025-12-31
   status Pending
7. 2025-12-29
   price $105,000
8. 2025-10-28
   status Active
9. 2025-10-25
   status Pending
10. 2025-10-18
    listed $114,900 Active
11. 1999-09-30
    soldstatus $72,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $869 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,018 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: +$149/yr (+$12/mo · 17.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 27% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 9 d/yr ≥79°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$869
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,776
• − Management: −$1,776
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $8,318
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,996
• After-tax cash flow: $7,540/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Reedsport SD 105
• NCES district ID: 4110410
• Math proficiency: 28% ▲ 7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $34,496
• Composite: 31.47/100
• National rank: #11187
• State rank: #143 of 183 in OR

Livability — Reedsport

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #224
• US rank: #15146

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing B Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Reedsport, OR
• Population (ZIP): 5,300

Population outlook (Douglas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,191 people
• By 2030: 102,664 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 96,668 · -8.1%
• By 2050: 91,279 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 79,395 · -24.5%
• By 2100: 66,107 · -37.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Douglas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.7) · D 29.9% · R 67.6% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -20.1pp · 2024: -37.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.7 2020: R+37.5 2016: R+39.4 2012: R+27.6 2008: R+20.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.19%
• Current HPI: 345.8251
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+44.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-04-18 Relisted — RMLS
• 2026-04-15 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-04-03 Relisted — RMLS
• 2026-01-12 Relisted — RMLS
• 2025-12-31 Pending — RMLS
• 2025-12-29 Price Changed $105,000 RMLS
• 2025-10-28 Relisted — RMLS
• 2025-10-25 Pending — RMLS
• 2025-10-18 Listed $114,900 RMLS
• 1999-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $72,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $869 · -7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.