515 Elm St

Jourdanton, TX 78026

$72,500B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 1999 · Townhouse · Active · 65 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$380
• Tax + insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $290/mo
• Annual: $3,477/yr
• Cap rate: 11.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.13%
• DSCR: 1.76
• 1% rule: 1.38%
• Cash to close: $20,300

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $72k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $290 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $72k).
• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $68k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $501 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#474 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Jourdanton ISD (town): math 46% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #258 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jourdanton El (math 46% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 468 students, 60% FRL); Jourdanton J H (math 41% / reading 45%, grade D-, #540 of 1,662 statewide, top 33%, 377 students, 56% FRL); Jourdanton H S (math 62% / reading 57%, grade C+, #275 of 1,632 statewide, top 19%, 442 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 169 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 224 units permitted in Atascosa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Atascosa County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 3.5% in Jourdanton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.