515 Elm St · Jourdanton, TX 78026

$72,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Townhouse public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1999 7,492 sqft lot $60/sqft · 61% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well-maintained 3 bedroom 2 bath single-family home located in Jourdanton, offering a functional layout and solid construction built in 1999. With approximately 1,216 sq ft of living space, this home is designed for efficiency while still providing a comfortable setting for everyday living or entertaining. The interior features a practical floor plan with a welcoming living area, ample natural light throughout, and a functional kitchen offering plenty of cabinet space. Bedrooms are well-sized and versatile, making them suitable for family, guests, or a home office setup. Situated on a spacious 7,500+ sq ft lot, the property provides room to spread out with plenty of outdoor potential. Whether you're considering a garden, workshop, or additional improvements, there's space to make it your own. Multiple structures on the property offer added storage or utility options. Located on a quiet residential street with low traffic, this home delivers a peaceful setting while still being conveniently positioned. Just a short drive to Pleasanton and within commuting distance to San Antonio, it offers a balance of small-town living with access to city amenities, schools, shopping, and dining. Zoned SF-1 residential, this property presents a great opportunity for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors. With strong rental demand in the Jourdanton area and an affordable entry point compared to nearby markets, it also offers potential for added value through updates or improvements.

Key facts

• 7,492 sq ft lot
• Built 1999
• Listed 65 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $72k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $290 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $72k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 3.5% in Jourdanton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#474 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Jourdanton ISD (town): math 46% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #258 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 169 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 224 units permitted in Atascosa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $501 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Atascosa County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,150 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.13%
• DSCR: 1.76
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $187,692
• List price: $72,500
• Delta: -61.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $6,720
• Equity at exit: $10,810

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $29,673
• Equity at exit: $6,268

Cash invested: $20,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78026

• Home prices YoY: -10.1%
• Active inventory: 169
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$380
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,078/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $290

Break-even live

Break-even rent $633

Max offer price $72,500

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $331	-5% $310	+0% $290	+5% $269	+10% $249
Rent	-10% $211	-5% $250	+0% $290	+5% $329	+10% $369
Rate	-1.0pp $326	-0.5pp $308	base $290	+0.5pp $271	+1.0pp $252

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,125
• Closing costs: $2,175
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
603 Commerce St Jourdanton, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	25d	1	0.34mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $72,500 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $72,500 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $72,500 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $72,500 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $72,500 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $72,500 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $72,500 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $72,500 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $72,500 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $72,500 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $72,500 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $72,500 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $72,500 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $72,500 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $72,500 Active 45 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $72,500 Active 44 DOM
17. 2026-04-17
    listed $72,500 New 1507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1507 chars)

    Well-maintained 3 bedroom 2 bath single-family home located in Jourdanton, offering a functional layout and solid construction built in 1999. With approximately 1,216 sq ft of living space, this home is designed for efficiency while still providing a comfortable setting for everyday living or entertaining. The interior features a practical floor plan with a welcoming living area, ample natural light throughout, and a functional kitchen offering plenty of cabinet space. Bedrooms are well-sized and versatile, making them suitable for family, guests, or a home office setup. Situated on a spacious 7,500+ sq ft lot, the property provides room to spread out with plenty of outdoor potential. Whether you're considering a garden, workshop, or additional improvements, there's space to make it your own. Multiple structures on the property offer added storage or utility options. Located on a quiet residential street with low traffic, this home delivers a peaceful setting while still being conveniently positioned. Just a short drive to Pleasanton and within commuting distance to San Antonio, it offers a balance of small-town living with access to city amenities, schools, shopping, and dining. Zoned SF-1 residential, this property presents a great opportunity for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors. With strong rental demand in the Jourdanton area and an affordable entry point compared to nearby markets, it also offers potential for added value through updates or improvements.

18. 2007-12-13
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,078 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,327 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$249/yr (+$21/mo · 23.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,061
• − Property taxes: −$1,078
• − Insurance: −$362
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$960
• − Management: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$2,109
• Taxable income: $2,469
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$593
• After-tax cash flow: $2,884/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jourdanton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824960
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $51,581
• Composite: 38.81/100
• National rank: #4116
• State rank: #258 of 826 in TX

Livability — Jourdanton

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #474
• US rank: #9531

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jourdanton, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,438

Population outlook (Atascosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,233 people
• By 2030: 61,729 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 71,122 · +24.3%
• By 2050: 80,906 · +41.4%
• By 2075: 106,134 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 122,415 · +113.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 20% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 27% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Atascosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.3) · D 27.9% · R 71.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.5pp · 2024: -43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.3 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+29.1 2012: R+18.3 2008: R+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.13%
• Current HPI: 205.0473
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $72,500 LERA
• 2007-12-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,078 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.