3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,447 sqft ·
Built 2013
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 62 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,800/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,495
Tax + insurance
−$345
HOA
−$29
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$798
Net cashflow
$1,134/mo
Annual
$13,605/yr
Cap rate
11.07%
Cash-on-cash
17.05%
DSCR
1.76
1% rule
1.33%
Cash to close
$79,800
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $285k).
It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $268k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $11k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#17 in LA, #3,876 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
St. Tammany Parish (suburban): math 43% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #11 of 98 in LA (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Joseph B. Lancaster Elementary School (math 58% / reading 73%, grade B+, #38 of 646 statewide, top 6%, 1,505 students, 21% FRL); Madisonville Junior High School (math 41% / reading 58%, grade C, #28 of 218 statewide, top 13%, 655 students, 21% FRL); Covington High School (math 32% / reading 44%, grade F, #90 of 265 statewide, top 34%, 1,660 students, 46% FRL).
Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,064 units permitted in St. Tammany Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
St. Tammany County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
8 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $80k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 3.9% in Covington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-468PNTFY4Y34JW
· Data 13 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29