7109 Spruce

Natural Bridge, NY 13648

$129,900C-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 980 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Pending · 362 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,373/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax + insurance: −$458
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $-54/mo
• Annual: $-651/yr
• Cap rate: 6.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.34%
• DSCR: 1.10
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $36,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-54 ($-651/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $120k (7.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• It's been on market 362 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,057 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: housing D+, schools D, health & safety D.
• Harrisville Central School District (rural): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #673 of 755 in NY (top 89%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 110 units permitted in Lewis County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lewis County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 362 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?