Lincoln Plan

Fruit Cove, FL 32092

$332,990F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,707 sqft · Built — · Townhouse · Active · 361 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,636/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,949
• Tax + insurance: −$620
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$554
• Net cashflow: $-486/mo
• Annual: $-5,835/yr
• Cap rate: 4.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.61%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $104,084

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $333k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-486 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $301k (9.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (20.8% below list).
• It's been on market 361 days — a 12% lower offer ($293k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $264k (20.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#469 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Timberlin Creek Elementary School (math 81% / reading 85%, grade A+, #65 of 2,144 statewide, top 3%, 1,311 students, 9% FRL); Switzerland Point Middle School (math 80% / reading 72%, grade A, #34 of 571 statewide, top 6%, 1,430 students, 5% FRL); Bartram Trail High School (math 68% / reading 75%, grade B+, #49 of 667 statewide, top 8%, 2,493 students, 4% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1335 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.9% in Fruit Cove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 361 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.