Lincoln Plan · Fruit Cove, FL 32092

$332,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,707 sqft · Townhouse · 361 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The first level of this two-story townhome features an open-concept design, allowing seamless transition between the gathering room, kitchen and nook. A covered lanai offers convenient indoor-outdoor dining and entertaining, while three bedrooms and a loft occupy the second floor.

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Gathering room
• Kitchen

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• COVERED LANAI
• INDOOR-OUTDOOR DINING
• GATHERING ROOM
• KITCHEN
• NOOK

🏗️ New construction. The $332,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $371,729.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $333k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-483 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $302k (9.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (20.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $264k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.9% in Fruit Cove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#469 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Timberlin Creek Elementary School (math 81% / reading 85%, grade A+, #65 of 2,144 statewide, top 3%, 1,311 students, 9% FRL); Switzerland Point Middle School (math 80% / reading 72%, grade A, #34 of 571 statewide, top 6%, 1,430 students, 5% FRL); Bartram Trail High School (math 68% / reading 75%, grade B+, #49 of 667 statewide, top 8%, 2,493 students, 4% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1335 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 361 days — a 12% lower offer ($293k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $264,053 (20.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 361 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.57%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $371,729
• List price: $332,990
• Delta: -10.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
90 Carmella Ct	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,707 (0%)	2mo	$297,500	$174	76
162 Yellowstone Dr	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,813 (+6%)	1mo	$364,990	$201	76
170 Yellowstone Dr	0.29mi	3/2.5	1,813 (+6%)	1mo	$369,990	$204	76
29 Craig Ct	0.54mi	3/2.5	1,707 (0%)	0mo	$285,000	$167	75
31 Craig Ct	0.54mi	3/2.5	1,707 (0%)	1mo	$278,500	$163	74
225 Yellowstone Dr	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,813 (+6%)	1mo	$367,990	$203	73
185 Appleton Ct	0.45mi	3/2.5	1,631 (-4%)	2mo	$298,000	$183	70
80 Belfort Ct	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,799 (+5%)	1mo	$322,500	$179	67
76 Belfort Ct	0.49mi	3/2.5	1,799 (+5%)	1mo	$347,500	$193	67
109 Belfort Ct	0.53mi	3/2.5	1,799 (+5%)	2mo	$317,500	$176	65
113 Belfort Ct	0.53mi	3/2.5	1,799 (+5%)	2mo	$317,500	$176	65
119 Hogan Ct	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,799 (+5%)	1mo	$322,595	$179	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-98,491
• Equity at exit: $55,426

10-year hold

• IRR: -46.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.48×
• Total profit: $-154,384
• Equity at exit: $32,140

Cash invested: $104,084 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32092

• Home prices YoY: -32.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 1335
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,641 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,949
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$465 /mo · $5,576/yr
• Insurance: −$155
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$555
• Net cashflow: $-483

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,252

Max offer price $301,850

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-226	-5% $-354	+0% $-483	+5% $-611	+10% $-740
Rent	-10% $-692	-5% $-587	+0% $-483	+5% $-379	+10% $-274
Rate	-1.0pp $-296	-0.5pp $-388	base $-483	+0.5pp $-579	+1.0pp $-677

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,932
• Closing costs: $11,152
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
78 Gaston Ct Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.5	1635	$2,250	$1.38	25d	1	0.29mi
36 Viceroy Ct Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.5	1631	$2,850	$1.75	19d	1	0.47mi
413 Rosemont Dr Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,125	$1.19	25d	1	0.53mi
380 Belfort Ct Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,500	$1.40	25d	1	0.56mi
18 Longtail Dr Saint Augustine, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1714	$3,142	$1.83	3d	9	0.62mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $332,990 Active 361 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $332,990 Active 358 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $332,990 Active 357 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $332,990 Active 356 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $332,990 Active 355 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $332,990 Active 353 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $332,990 Active 352 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $332,990 Active 349 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $332,990 Active 348 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $332,990 Active 347 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $332,990 Active 343 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $332,990 Active 342 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $332,990 Active 341 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $332,990 Active 340 DOM
15. 2025-07-02
    price $332,990 281-char remark

    Show marketing remark (281 chars)

    The first level of this two-story townhome features an open-concept design, allowing seamless transition between the gathering room, kitchen and nook. A covered lanai offers convenient indoor-outdoor dining and entertaining, while three bedrooms and a loft occupy the second floor.

16. 2025-06-25
    listed $332,490 Active 281-char remark

    Show marketing remark (281 chars)

    The first level of this two-story townhome features an open-concept design, allowing seamless transition between the gathering room, kitchen and nook. A covered lanai offers convenient indoor-outdoor dining and entertaining, while three bedrooms and a loft occupy the second floor.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,686
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,823
• − Property taxes: −$5,576
• − Insurance: −$1,859
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,535
• − Management: −$2,535
• − Depreciation: −$10,814
• Taxable loss: −$12,455
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,989
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,806/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — Fruit Cove

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #469
• US rank: #8490

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Johns County · 301,599 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 53,071
• Household income: $131,020
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 706.0

Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -123.26%
• Current HPI: 259.732
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.08%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+0.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-02 Price Changed $332,990 Zillow
• 2025-06-25 Listed $332,490 Zillow