2015-2017 St Paul Dr

Milton, NY 12020

$399,900C-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,420 sqft · Built 1990 · MultiFamily · Active · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,755/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax + insurance: −$641
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$789
• Net cashflow: $228/mo
• Annual: $2,738/yr
• Cap rate: 6.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.45%
• DSCR: 1.11
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $111,972

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $400k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $228 ($3k/yr) — positive. Per door: $114/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $376k (6.1% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $376k (6.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#652 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Ballston Spa Central School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #289 of 590 in NY (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ballston Spa Senior High School (math 92% / reading 64%, grade A-, #568 of 1,100 statewide, top 52%, 1,249 students, 32% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 78% at this address vs 54% district-wide (+24 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Ballston Spa Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.3%/yr); 223 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,132 units permitted in Saratoga County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Saratoga County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $243k; list at $400k implies a 65% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $112k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 2.4% in Milton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($107k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.