2015-2017 St Paul Dr · Milton, NY 12020

$399,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,420 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1990 0.94 ac lot Est $426k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.4/30.0
• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Large , well maintained two-family on almost an acre . Close to West Milton site and not far from Global Foundries. Paint and new flooring has just been added . Rents are estimated based on recent market results. Garages and big back yards for outdoor enjoyment are part of this property. Less than 30 years old , the roof probably has 2 to 5 years of life left. Priced accordingly . Rents quickly . Come see it . Good Condition

Key facts

• Tasteful kitchens
• Thoughtful updates
• Modern finishes

Tags

• REMODELED SIDE-BY-SIDE DUPLEX
• MODERN FINISHES
• THOUGHTFUL UPDATES
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREAS
• TASTEFUL KITCHENS
• PEACEFUL RESIDENTIAL SETTING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.94 acre
• Financial info: Owner pays electricity and internet

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage parking spaces (2 total parking)
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Duplex; 2,420 living area (combined)
• Construction: Other construction materials
• Exterior features: Asphalt roof; Other exterior finishes; Cleared lot; Garage(s) as additional structures

Interior

• Bedrooms: Unit 1: 3 bedrooms (all on 2nd floor); Unit 2: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: Total of 4 bathrooms (2 full, 2 half); Each unit has 1 full bath on the 2nd floor and 1 half bath on the 1st floor
• Heating & cooling: Ductless heating; Ductless cooling and wall units
• Interior features: Built-in features; Laminate flooring; Living room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $228 ($3k/yr) — positive. Per door: $114/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $376k (6.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $376k (6.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 2.4% in Milton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#652 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Ballston Spa Central School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #289 of 590 in NY (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ballston Spa Senior High School (math 92% / reading 64%, grade A-, #568 of 1,100 statewide, top 52%, 1,249 students, 32% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 78% at this address vs 54% district-wide (+24 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Ballston Spa Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.3%/yr); 223 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,132 units permitted in Saratoga County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($107k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saratoga County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $112k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $243k; list at $400k implies a 65% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $375,500 (6.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.45%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $425,920
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1000-1002 St Lawrence Dr	0.13mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,408 (-0%)	9mo	$425,000	$176	81

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-30,381
• Equity at exit: $59,626

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $82,746
• Equity at exit: $34,576

Cash invested: $111,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12020

• Home prices YoY: -14.8%
• Rents YoY: 11.3%
• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 17.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,755 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax from tax record: −$475 /mo · $5,694/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$789
• Net cashflow: $228

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,466

Max offer price $399,900

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $455	-5% $341	+0% $228	+5% $115	+10% $2
Rent	-10% $-68	-5% $80	+0% $228	+5% $377	+10% $525
Rate	-1.0pp $430	-0.5pp $330	base $228	+0.5pp $125	+1.0pp $19

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1.5	$3,754
Total (2 units)			$3,755

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,975
• Closing costs: $11,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,900 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,900 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,900 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,900 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $399,900 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $399,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,694 · $475/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,226 · $519/mo
• Expected delta: +$532/yr (+$44/mo · 9.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,060
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,401
• − Property taxes: −$5,694
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,605
• − Management: −$3,605
• − Depreciation: −$11,633
• Taxable loss: −$3,877
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$931
• After-tax cash flow: $3,669/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ballston Spa Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3603930
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $66,705
• Composite: 48.12/100
• National rank: #2184
• State rank: #289 of 590 in NY

Livability — Milton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #652
• US rank: #11825

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saratoga County · 166,192 people
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• Population (ZIP): 34,937
• Household income: $107,112
• Rent vs Own: 29.8% rent · 70.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 607.0

Population outlook (Saratoga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 238,889 people
• By 2030: 243,681 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 249,118 · +4.3%
• By 2050: 248,638 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 241,675 · +1.2%
• By 2100: 213,150 · -10.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 6% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Chinese 1% Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Saratoga

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.9% · R 49.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.6pp toward R · 2008: 3.4pp · 2024: 1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.8 2020: D+5.4 2016: R+4.4 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+3.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.23%
• Current HPI: 346.5996
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.26%
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+78.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $399,900 Global MLS
• 2020-01-21 Sold (Public Records) $243,000 Public Records
• 2020-01-07 Sold (MLS) $243,000 Global MLS
• 2019-11-01 Pending — Global MLS
• 2019-10-23 Price Changed $249,000 Global MLS
• 2019-09-16 Price Changed $259,000 Global MLS
• 2019-08-26 Listed $265,000 Global MLS
• 2012-08-01 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2012-06-12 Listed $224,000 Global MLS

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,694 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.