1338 Sapphire Palms Ct

San Leon, TX 77539

$299,900C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,375 sqft · Built 2024 · Land · Active · 167 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,570/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$624
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$540
• Net cashflow: $-166/mo
• Annual: $-1,997/yr
• Cap rate: 7.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.72%
• DSCR: 1.17
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $83,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-166 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (9.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (14.3% below list).
• It's been on market 167 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $257k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#899 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 664 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 1.8% in San Leon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 167 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.