1338 Sapphire Palms Ct · San Leon, TX 77539

$299,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,375 sqft · Land · 167 Days on market

Built 2024 6,969 sqft lot $218/sqft · 24% below area Est $393k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Sapphire Palms, a gated new-construction community offering an elevated yet approachable coastal lifestyle in San Leon. This intimate 22-home neighborhood features thoughtfully designed homes with covered front porches, modern finishes, and flexible living spaces ideal for everyday living or a weekend escape. Inside, enjoy vinyl plank flooring throughout the main living areas, tiled bathrooms, and quartz countertops in the kitchen and baths. Select floor plans offer the option for a rear porch off the primary bedroom, extending your living space outdoors and inviting in coastal breezes. With no HOA and short-term rental friendly flexibility, Sapphire Palms is an excellent opportunity for first-time buyers seeking quality new construction at an attainable price point, as well as second-home buyers looking for a low-maintenance coastal retreat near the bay.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Quartz countertops
• New construction

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• COVERED FRONT PORCHES
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• TILED BATHROOMS
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-166 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (9.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (14.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $257k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 1.8% in San Leon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#899 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 664 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 167 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $256,957 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 167 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.72%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $392,620
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: -23.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-66,612
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-100,288
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77539

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 664
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,570 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $866/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$540
• Net cashflow: $-166

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,780

Max offer price $270,501

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2735 Broadway St Unit 1546437P San Leon, TX	3.0	2.0	1819	$4,994	$2.75	12d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 167 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 166 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 165 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 164 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 162 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 158 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,900 Active 157 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,900 Active 156 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $299,900 Active 153 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,900 Active 152 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,900 Active 151 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,900 Active 150 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 149 DOM
14. 2026-03-24
    price $299,900 880-char remark

    Show marketing remark (880 chars)

    Welcome to Sapphire Palms, a gated new-construction community offering an elevated yet approachable coastal lifestyle in San Leon. This intimate 22-home neighborhood features thoughtfully designed homes with covered front porches, modern finishes, and flexible living spaces ideal for everyday living or a weekend escape. Inside, enjoy vinyl plank flooring throughout the main living areas, tiled bathrooms, and quartz countertops in the kitchen and baths. Select floor plans offer the option for a rear porch off the primary bedroom, extending your living space outdoors and inviting in coastal breezes. With no HOA and short-term rental friendly flexibility, Sapphire Palms is an excellent opportunity for first-time buyers seeking quality new construction at an attainable price point, as well as second-home buyers looking for a low-maintenance coastal retreat near the bay.

15. 2026-01-02
    listed $293,550 Active 880-char remark

    Show marketing remark (880 chars)

    Welcome to Sapphire Palms, a gated new-construction community offering an elevated yet approachable coastal lifestyle in San Leon. This intimate 22-home neighborhood features thoughtfully designed homes with covered front porches, modern finishes, and flexible living spaces ideal for everyday living or a weekend escape. Inside, enjoy vinyl plank flooring throughout the main living areas, tiled bathrooms, and quartz countertops in the kitchen and baths. Select floor plans offer the option for a rear porch off the primary bedroom, extending your living space outdoors and inviting in coastal breezes. With no HOA and short-term rental friendly flexibility, Sapphire Palms is an excellent opportunity for first-time buyers seeking quality new construction at an attainable price point, as well as second-home buyers looking for a low-maintenance coastal retreat near the bay.

16. 2023-07-26
    historical
17. 2023-03-26
    listed $75,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $866 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,488 · $457/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,622/yr (+$385/mo · 533.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,835
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$866
• − Insurance: −$6,618
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,467
• − Management: −$2,467
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$7,106
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,706
• After-tax cash flow: $-292/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Leon

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #899
• US rank: #16159

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Leon, TX
• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 49,375
• Household income: $89,111
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 869.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 19% Black 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.46%
• Current HPI: 258.0104
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.12%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+299.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $299,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-02 Listed $293,550 HARMLS
• 2023-07-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-03-26 Listed $75,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

-1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $866 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.