495 Milford Rd

Deerfield, IL 60015

$565,000D-

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,106 sqft · Built 1995 · Townhouse · Active · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,739/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,963
• Tax + insurance: −$1,123
• HOA: −$451
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$995
• Net cashflow: $-793/mo
• Annual: $-9,515/yr
• Cap rate: 4.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.01%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $158,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $565k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-793 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $425k (24.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $474k (16.1% below list).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $425k (24.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#35 in IL, #705 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities C-, health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Twp Hsd 113 (suburban): math 60% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #19 of 620 in IL (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: South Park Elem School (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B, #53 of 2,056 statewide, top 3%, 441 students, 0% FRL); Charles J Caruso Middle School (math 62% / reading 68%, grade A-, #13 of 665 statewide, top 2%, 445 students, 0% FRL); Deerfield High School (math 67% / reading 69%, grade B, #9 of 693 statewide, top 1%, 1,483 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 948 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (424 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.4% in Deerfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($183k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.