495 Milford Rd · Deerfield, IL 60015

$565,000

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,106 sqft · Townhouse public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1995 Est $615k · 8% under $451/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This Coromandel townhome lives like a single family with its own private entrance and 2 car attached garage. All brick exterior and private patio with view of the fountain. Huge, relaxing great room provides plenty of seating and the gas fireplace with gas logs add to the coziness during the winter. Dining area is fully open to the great room and has floor to ceiling windows on one end bringing all the sunlight, and lush landscaping into the entire first floor. the white kitchen has beautiful light-colored granite and more cabinetry than many homes. Newer stainless appliances include double convection ovens, gas cooktop, dishwasher refrigerator and disposal. Breakfast area in the kitchen fo

Key facts

• $451 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $565k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-793 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $425k (24.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $474k (16.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $425k (24.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.4% in Deerfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#35 in IL, #705 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, commute A+; Watch: amenities C-, health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Twp Hsd 113 (suburban): math 60% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #19 of 620 in IL (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 948 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (424 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($183k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $424,930 (24.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.01%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $614,952
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
421 Milford Rd	0.07mi	3/2.5 (+1)	2,244 (+7%)	1mo	$565,000	$252	80
504 S Commons Ct #504	0.24mi	2/2.5	2,069 (-2%)	11mo	$470,000	$227	77
513 Kelburn Rd	0.17mi	3/2.5 (+1)	2,106 (0%)	14mo	$555,000	$264	75
834 Poplar Ln	0.34mi	3/2.5 (+1)	2,103 (-0%)	5mo	$540,000	$257	75
422 Kelburn Rd #223	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,071 (-2%)	10mo	$582,500	$281	74
673 Central Ave	0.16mi	2/3.5	1,881 (-11%)	0mo	$549,000	$292	71
431 Kelburn Rd #313	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,875 (-11%)	4mo	$550,000	$293	70
640 Robert York Ave #407	0.29mi	3/2.5 (+1)	2,196 (+4%)	9mo	$700,000	$319	66
640 Robert York Ave #107	0.29mi	3/2.5 (+1)	2,196 (+4%)	14mo	$625,000	$285	62
937 Fountain View Dr #0	0.38mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,869 (-11%)	1mo	$565,000	$302	58
834 Chestnut St	0.64mi	3/3.0 (+1)	2,220 (+5%)	4mo	$655,000	$295	51
826 Chestnut St	0.62mi	3/3.0 (+1)	2,286 (+8%)	3mo	$728,600	$319	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-141,595
• Equity at exit: $84,243

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-186,457
• Equity at exit: $48,851

Cash invested: $158,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60015

• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,739 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,963
• Tax from tax record: −$887 /mo · $10,647/yr
• Insurance: −$235
• HOA: −$451
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$995
• Net cashflow: $-793

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,742

Max offer price $424,930

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-473	-5% $-633	+0% $-793	+5% $-953	+10% $-1,113
Rent	-10% $-1,167	-5% $-980	+0% $-793	+5% $-606	+10% $-419
Rate	-1.0pp $-508	-0.5pp $-649	base $-793	+0.5pp $-939	+1.0pp $-1,088

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $141,250
• Closing costs: $16,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
728 Waukegan Rd Deerfield, IL	3.0	2.0	1767	$7,000	$3.96	25d	1	0.33mi
728 Waukegan Rd Unit 209 Deerfield, IL	3.0	2.5	1767	$5,950	$3.37	17d	1	0.33mi
728 Waukegan Rd Unit 209 Deerfield, IL	3.0	2.5	1767	$5,950	$3.37	23d	1	0.33mi
1006 Brookside Ln Deerfield, IL	3.0	2.0	2074	$3,900	$1.88	25d	1	0.56mi
1150 Blackthorn Ln Deerfield, IL	3.0	2.5	1566	$4,500	$2.87	25d	1	0.86mi
1430 Waukegan Rd Deerfield, IL	3.0	3.0	1562	$3,500	$2.24	0d	1	1.28mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $451 · $5,412/yr
• Likely covers: gaslandscaping

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $565,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $575,000 Coming Soon 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $575,000 Coming Soon 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $575,000 Coming Soon 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   statusdays on marketlisting id $575,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $575,000 Active (Private) 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $575,000 Active (Private) 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $575,000 Active (Private) 4 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $575,000 Active (Private) 3 DOM
10. 2026-05-28
    historical $575,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $10,647 · $887/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,736 · $978/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,089/yr (+$91/mo · 10.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $56,865
• − Mortgage interest: −$31,649
• − Property taxes: −$10,647
• − Insurance: −$2,825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,549
• − Management: −$4,549
• − HOA: −$5,412
• − Depreciation: −$16,436
• Taxable loss: −$19,202
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,608
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,906/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Twp Hsd 113
• NCES district ID: 1719080
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $122,404
• Composite: 59.23/100
• National rank: #937
• State rank: #19 of 620 in IL

Livability — Deerfield

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #35
• US rank: #705

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Deerfield, IL
• County: Lake County · 591,991 people
• City population: 28,096
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 28,096
• Household income: $183,125
• Rent vs Own: 15.3% rent · 84.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 450.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 700,217 people
• By 2030: 693,290 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 673,588 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 643,556 · -8.1%
• By 2075: 562,792 · -19.6%
• By 2100: 457,715 · -34.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Asian 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Scotch-Irish 10% Italian 4%
• Foreign-born: 14% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 6% Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.8) · D 59.7% · R 38.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.1pp toward D · 2008: 19.6pp · 2024: 20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.8 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+20.3 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+19.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -318.91%
• Current HPI: 184.8993
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Coming Soon $575,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $10,647 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.