4539 Carlton Rd

Sterling Heights, MI 48310

$49,995B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,184 sqft · Built 2012 · SingleFamily · Active · 94 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,901/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax + insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$766
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $390/mo
• Annual: $4,681/yr
• Cap rate: 15.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.44%
• DSCR: 2.49
• 1% rule: 3.80%
• Cash to close: $13,999

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $50k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $390 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($45k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $45k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#173 in MI, #4,545 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F.
• Utica Community Schools (suburban): math 38% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #126 of 540 in MI (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Burr Elementary School (math 19% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,081 of 1,397 statewide, top 77%, 554 students, 79% FRL); Adlai Stevenson High School (math 32% / reading 54%, grade F, #260 of 713 statewide, top 37%, 1,977 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 26% district-wide (41 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Utica Community Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 40% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 137 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 6 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $3k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.5% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 15.7% vs local median 3.8% in Sterling Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.